How's this line?

[kumarshah]

[ QUOTE ]
kumarshah,

You should turn your chat on--I was on a table with you at PS tonight, and I gave you a "sup bro"!

[/ QUOTE ]

Was it when I was sitting out?

Whats your screen name?

[Smurph64]

Why anyone would think this guy has Ax here is confusing. He has no fear of the set, he has no fear of the eights. The turn bet is not a continuation bet with this guy.

I can think of 1000 better ways to figure this guy out than this move here and I love to test players on their first play at a table.

Against this guy here this is a -ev move. IMO

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Why anyone would think this guy has Ax here is confusing. He has no fear of the set, he has no fear of the eights. The turn bet is not a continuation bet with this guy.

I can think of 1000 better ways to figure this guy out than this move here and I love to test players on their first play at a table.

Against this guy here this is a -ev move. IMO

[/ QUOTE ]

What is known about this guy? Basically nothing:

[ QUOTE ]
I have no notes on this guy other than noticing that he hasn't played a hand up to this point after 2 orbits.

[/ QUOTE ]

I give very minor credibility to this read, especially in the absence of context. For example, has it been raised often preflop by other players? We know nothing about his postflop play. A very large range of players to bet the flop and the turn when it's a ragged paired board.

[freedom18]

i dont like it, i prefer c/c c/f, hes not going to bluff u out n the river, so A will showdown and if he does let the maniac take it down no need to tango with loonies [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[Smurph64]

I find it fascinating that we as people do things instinctively when meeting a new foe.

We underestimate him. Similarily we overestimate foes we do know.

Discipline in war counts more than fury - Machiavelli

[Dastone]

Line is ok, but do you think you're winning here or that he will fold a better hand?

If I decide to call the flop I will lead the turn, and call a raise. I would like to get more info out of villan so I can know if any pairs I might make are also good. Obviously I would bet flush on river.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
I find it fascinating that we as people do things instinctively when meeting a new foe.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's actually a good amount of math and very little "instinct" going on here. An open range from a mid position villain often has a hand range that looks like AA-99, AK-AJ, ATs, KQ, KJs.

When villain has overcards, he will very often bet the turn and take a free showdown. Therefore, there is no difference in how he plays AA-99 and how he plays AK-AJ, ATs, KQ, KJs.

AA = 3 hands
KK-99 = 5*6 hands = 30 hands
AK = 12 hands
AQ-AJ = 2*16 hands = 32 hands
ATs = 3 hands
KQ = 16 hands
KJs = 4 hands
Total = 100 hands (convenient!)

So 33% of the time villain has an overpair and 67% of the time he doesn't. I like those odds and I'll gamble to take the pot from the overcards. The pot is a good size, plus I win a little extra when villain peels the turn and folds the river UI.

[Smurph64]

Often has a hand range of what? That just proves my point. You have a read on this guy for 2 orbits, does he play like most guys?

No. He folded around twice. He bet out of postion, he raised against a BB on a coordinated and paired middle board not once but twice.

These are not the moves of a typical opponent. Bet away with math here on your side, but I have better use for my money against these tables than this.

Mathematically, I ran a trial with that board against an opponent that plays 6% of his hands preflop (which is a likely the case as he raised it and has folded 100% prior)

Out of 3.17 million simulations you win 50% on the river heads up against that opponent. I raise 15% of my hands. In middle position I raise around 12%.

So lets put him at 16% range of starters he would raise as a really bad worse case possibility ( he had 27o 12 times in a row for example)

In 3.11 million simulations A7 diamonds wins against that opponent 57% of the time.

If you are playing me go ahead and raise. Otherwise I don't think its a good plan.

[CrMenace]

I don't think I would play any street the same- except maybe preflop, depending on read.

[Marquoz]

With 4.5 outs and just 4.5 SB in the pot (the OP is wrong there, it's small bets, not big bets), I fold the flop.