22/180 - Easy push?

[Vraket]

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I would not push.
I would raise to 1600 or 2400, and fold if played back at.
..or maybe I just call and play the flop.

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I don't agree with any of these lines because:

Raising less than AI is allowing BB to call with position or re-raise with a hand that beats us (read Ax). Folding is very weak if we open-raise.

Calling all but guarentees us the worst result - BB raising 95% of the time in position or checking when he holds a monster, STILL in position.

Its push or fold time here. Honestly, I'm leaning more towards folding (without a better posted read) because I can find better spots to steal/re-steal than with any 2 vs. a bigger stack that should call more % of the time than I'm favored. Guys, it isn't ALWAYS correct to push & the criteria for wherher this is push time isn't provided in the post (detailed reads on Hero & villian).

67% fold, 33% push.

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LOL, you're my favorite kind of opponent.
I like you!

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And if you're actually willing to open to 1600 or something here, you're my favorite, cause I'm restealing from your ass every day and twice on Sunday.

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This is great. Seems to me like everybody is scared of the big bad blind having ESP, and reraising everytime. Well, I ain't fraid of the dark. Y'all keep on pushing, it's easier that way. I understand. You have my sympathy.

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So you suggest raising 97 for value? Wait, It ain't a hand you raise for value especially when it's gonna be played out of position. Raise 97, get a call, cont bet and he put you in and your entire stack is gone.

Raising to 2400 or 1600 is awful, push or fold is the correct play and I'd push all day.

[seke2]

Dude, listen.

Raising and not pushing here is awful.

You are too short to be creative, in any way shape or form. You will have no ability to outplay anyone on the flop, because if he calls a raise of 2400, the pot will be as big as your stack and your only move is to push. Additionally, if he's not a complete idiot, he would know that your range to raise when folded to you there is hugely wide, but the range with which you would call a push on the bubble is very narrow. He is practically obligated to try and resteal. Or at least call and play with position against you when you have nothing but desperation on your side.

Meanwhile, if you push, like I said, Villain will only call the push for 3/4 of his stack with a very narrow range especially because this is the bubble, and thus pushing is hugely +EV, and quite probably unexploitable here.

Raising on the other hand, is really bad, and due to the fact that he will resteal or at least call and play a pot against you with position with a much wider range that he'd call a push AND you are too short to actually use your stack creatively, it probably isn't even +EV to raise here.

[Quanah Parker]

I'm glad to see everyone wants to push here, with a few for folding.
I think y'all should stick together. That's the way to win big in poker.
There's safety in numbers.
Stay in the herd.
If everybody else is doing it, it must be the right thing to do.

[seke2]

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I'm glad to see everyone wants to push here, with a few for folding.
I think y'all should stick together. That's the way to win big in poker.
There's safety in numbers.
Stay in the herd.
If everybody else is doing it, it must be the right thing to do.

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So, other than senseless cliches, what arguments are in favor of your side? Please, oh wise one, convince us of the wisdom in your ways.

Also, what is your Stars screenname? [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[Quanah Parker]

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Dude, listen.

Raising and not pushing here is awful.

You are too short to be creative, in any way shape or form. You will have no ability to outplay anyone on the flop, because if he calls a raise of 2400, the pot will be as big as your stack and your only move is to push. Additionally, if he's not a complete idiot, he would know that your range to raise when folded to you there is hugely wide, but the range with which you would call a push on the bubble is very narrow. He is practically obligated to try and resteal. Or at least call and play with position against you when you have nothing but desperation on your side.

Meanwhile, if you push, like I said, Villain will only call the push for 3/4 of his stack with a very narrow range especially because this is the bubble, and thus pushing is hugely +EV, and quite probably unexploitable here.

Raising on the other hand, is really bad, and due to the fact that he will resteal or at least call and play a pot against you with position with a much wider range that he'd call a push AND you are too short to actually use your stack creatively, it probably isn't even +EV to raise here.

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OK, your post is well written and I know I'm being a smart azz here.
But, I think your giving Villian way too much credit.

I think the all-in move here is unneccasry, if you've been playing tight. You made one decision and that's it. If you get called, there's No way out, and no way ITM. I'll keep my options open here.

Y'all can all go all-in as much as you want. I think it's a good choice for folks who like to keep things simple and safe.

[Quanah Parker]

I'd love to give you my Stars name, but I'm not going to, for what should be obvious reasons.
I assume you want to know to verify that I'm a winner. I am.

I can't enlighten those whose ears are closed.

Wiki groupthink is my advice for now.

[NoahSD]

When you or the person to your immediately left has < 10 BBs, consider that person to be your personal ATM.

[seke2]

I had a really good post where I did all the math, but I lost it when my computer flaked out. I'm not going to do it again, because, quite frankly, it's obvious to everyone except Quanah, and clearly he's set in his ways. The long and short of it is that this is significantly +EV unless you believe Villain will call your push with, roughly, this range:

55+,A2s+,K3s+,Q6s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,A4o+,K8o+,Q9o+,J 9o+,T9o

[seke2]

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I can't enlighten those whose ears are closed.

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You haven't actually made an argument in favor of your position other than the misguided idea that somehow pushing is bad because when the other guy calls, you can't get ITM. In fact, you can profit by either winning the blinds or doubling up if you're called, and even against a fairly tight range of possible calling hands like AQ+, 99+, you still have 25% equity. And for Villain to call with a range that tight, it means he's folding the 95% of the time he doesn't have those hands.

Your idea of raising 3x leaves you with a few possibilities.

1, you win the blinds and antes
2, he calls and you have to play a pot with a weak hand OOP where you basically have no ability to do anything other than push and hope he didn't hit the flop. the range of hands with which he'd call the raise is ahead of you, so he'd be the favorite most likely on the flop. most of the time you push the flop, it will be a dark tunnel bluff.
3, he reraises preflop and you fold, costing you 3 BB without anything gained, and leaving you with only 6 BB left.

That third scenario is bad enough that you should never even think about doing it. If you aren't going to take a hand to the felt with less than 10 BB's in your stack, you shouldn't be paying to play it, period.

[Quanah Parker]

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I had a really good post where I did all the math, but I lost it when my computer flaked out. I'm not going to do it again, because, quite frankly, it's obvious to everyone except Quanah, and clearly he's set in his ways. The long and short of it is that this is significantly +EV unless you believe Villain will call your push with, roughly, this range:

55+,A2s+,K3s+,Q6s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,A4o+,K8o+,Q9o+,J 9o+,T9o

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I believe you. Really. I'm sure your math is correct.

For a couple reasons I think math matters less in this situation. The blinds, bubble, position, stack sizes. Us and them.

I also think a push here is no better than a min-raise.
Your math may dispute this.
My personal results confirm it.
If your style works for you, awesome.
There's more than one way to skin a cat.
Here kitty kitty.