$5.50 - I fold AK ITM w/<3 BBs!

[lastchance]

I agree with the rest of the forum. Laying this down in situations A and C completely sucks.

[Jay Riall]

I agree. B is closer though.

[AMT]

kev,

it is in spots like this that you have to remember that it is more crucial to play for 1st once you are ITM then to play for 2nd. by not calling you give up the chance to triple up with what is likely the best hand here, and give your best shot to get heads up with at least an ok stack. if you fold you are giving up that chance and will almost never win this particular sit and go.

[AnthonyV]

kevkev,

given the stacks in the OP, you are almost certain getting third without a quick double- or triple-up. unless SB is a complete moron, he's not going to let himself bust playing post-flop with the big stack, while you have less than 2xBB. your originial fold basically capitulates the STTs in hopes of SB busting while tangling with UTG. what's more, you have AK, which will likely dominate at least one of the other two players here. to put it simply, i could not be happier that SB entered this hand, and i am absolutely ecstatic to see AK.

for your other examples:

B. eh this is tougher. given these stacks, you basically have statistically near zero chance of first place. i fold here as SB will likely put his stack in on the flop, giving you a shot at second.

C. in my mind, this is really almost exactly the same as OP. AK is just such a monster here.

[kevkev60614]

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unless SB is a complete moron

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Bleh. In my OP, I wrote that SB was likely the worst player I've ever played with at any level. In this hand, he got it all in with 55 on a J84 flop. BTN had 77 and SB busted. I'm trying soooo hard not to be results oriented, though.

[ QUOTE ]
B. eh this is tougher. given these stacks, you basically have statistically near zero chance of first place. i fold here as SB will likely put his stack in on the flop, giving you a shot at second.

[/ QUOTE ]
Villain put his stack in pf. Calling two all-ins as the shorty 3-handed when I know the bigstack has a tighter range is a tremendous mistake in my mind. I didn't expect this hand to be debatable. I'm scared. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
C. in my mind, this is really almost exactly the same as OP. AK is just such a monster here.

[/ QUOTE ]
SB puts in almost half his stack, so he's basically committed. I was trying to show that as SB's chances of getting away from the hand increase, I should call. But because SB was sooo terrible, he wouldn't be able to get away regardless. Because 3-handed is like a mini-bubble, I need to have significantly more than 33% pot equity to call, which I do. But as SB's chances of busting increase, the pot equity I need to call increases. Maybe I didn't explain that well enough before. Or maybe I did, but didn't likely SB was to bust. Or maybe I did that, too, but I'm still wrong.

Look peeps, there are too many good players telling me I'm wrong here for me to believe that I'm still right. So I'm not really arguing my point anymore. But knowing I'm wrong is pretty useless to me; I need to know WHY I'm wrong. So if anyone has any more insight, please share. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[wiggs73]

kev,

A good exercise would be to to work out ICM for this hand. I'd do it myself but I'm at work and actually have stuff to do today. I'm interested in the results though.

[kevkev60614]

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work out ICM for this hand.

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I almost always try to work it out with SNGPT or ICM by hand before I post. In this case I sat down to do it by hand and decided there were just too many variables for me to come to a reasonable conclusion mathematically. I think I'd be forced to make some crazy assumptions. I can work out Scenario B by hand but I don't feel that I need to.