I can't put him on quads, can I? Deep in 11r

[skier_5]

since you are asking. Since the pot size shows you called. Ima put him on quads and fold [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

I probably fold this. Yes, sometimes you lose by not making the split, sometimes you fold the best hand, but you have so many chips I think losing that 1 mill in chips is such a huge deal that you need to fold here.

I have trouble folding this, but I think it may be correct, but im not sure.

[Foucault]

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1) I see nothing wrong with calling PF in position. Five handed UTG raises are meaningless.

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Yeah I didn't notice it was 5-handed. I'm still not a big fan of the call, but it's mostly a question of style. Complaint withdrawn.

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2) If villian had quads and really thought you had a boat, why on earth would he not value bet the turn and better price you in on the river?

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Good point, but there are a lot of players who think they have to slowplay quads. But, most of them don't lead out trips on the flop, either. If Hero has been kicking Villain around like a misbehaving puppy, then maybe Villain is trying to represent giving up after a c-bet.

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3) The 55k is donktastic

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The final table bubble probably less so (but see LFT's post in MTT Community).

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4) I'd call.

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Agreed.

To those saying why doesn't Hero bet turn: this is way ahead/way behind, and although you are ahead much more often than behind, you aren't likely to win two bets from QQ, which is the best hand you are beating. So you can bet either the turn or the river for value, but not both. Assuming you aren't folding at any point, you'll lose less versus quads or aces full by checking turn and calling a river bet. Also, QQ is more likely to call river than turn, since a turn call doesn't guarantee a showdown, and Villain has to fear a river bet that he can't call. So check turn and call/bet river is definitely the way to go.

To those saying why would quads shove the river: If you aren't shoving quads here, start. 99% of players are not folding an A for anything.

[trentk268]

Best you can hope for is that he's got aces full. He raised pf UTG so he's not exactly playing with scraps. He's probably holding an ace just like you but you can't be sure about his other card.

If he raised with AK he'd be playing exactly as he did pf. I'd guess that he'd check the flop, but maybe not. If a K improves his hand I've got to believe that he's going to check, following the strong betting he's done pf and flop.

The all-in river bet confirms that. You've gotta cut your losses here, you're 11r. Fold, you ain't got the best of it.

[adanthar]

This is never anything worse than a split, c'mon.

That is also why this is a VERY bad call in the long run - not close.

[Machinehead]

I can't see why calling here is good. As deepstacked as Hero is, I think this is a bad risk to take for very little reward. This guy has the K more often than some of you are giving him credit for. Most players would check the K on the turn. It is also possible villian has AA.

[yabastid]

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I call. If you had quads, would you push the river for 2x the pot? I'm pretty sure he'd make a value bet. I think you're chopping here, and you may even be ahead.

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This kind of thinking is why pushing quads here is +EV.

Fold.

Edited to say: Given the way the hand played out, with the A on the flop- I push quads here on river every time.

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Really? Hero is calling 102K to win 28K, so Villain has to have quads more than 1 time in 4 (allowing for the fact that losing a big stack on the bubble is more bad than chopping this pot is good). Don't you think he plays an A the same way? I'm not saying he should, but I think most would. I also think a lot of even pretty bad players will shove quads here, it doesn't take a genious to realize Hero has an A. Still, even if he played all his Ax and Kx hands under the gun, he'd have A twice as often, and if we assume he plays more Ax than Kx hands, I think we see A three times as often as K, which means this is a call.

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I really think calling here is terrible. I think pushing 1 mill into a 500K pot on river with a lone Ace is kinda bad too as you are obviously only getting called if your beat or your oppoent doesn't mind calling off half his stack on the FT bubble hoping to chop at best- and I think a smart opponent easily folds an A here and doesn' think too much about it.

Calling with an A here is awful. Pushing quad kings here is money.

[somerook]

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To those saying why would quads shove the river: If you aren't shoving quads here, start. 99% of players are not folding an A for anything.

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Amen baby. Twice in the last two days, I called an all-in on the river w the second nuts, and have the bruises to show it. I'm seeing a lot of river pushes w the nuts. (and some-rookies callin em :-))

[woodguy]

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2) If villian had quads and really thought you had a boat, why on earth would he not value bet the turn and better price you in on the river?

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The rule of Zeebo, which is something like "if you think your opponent has a boat which you can beat, push all in because no one folds boats, regardless how weak that boat is on that board"

Regards,
Woodguy

[yabastid]

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2) If villian had quads and really thought you had a boat, why on earth would he not value bet the turn and better price you in on the river?

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The rule of Zeebo, which is something like "if you think your opponent has a boat which you can beat, push all in because no one folds boats, regardless how weak that boat is on that board"

Regards,
Woodguy

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Yeah, Zeebo's rule is no one can fold a full house on a board like this.

[Thundercat32]

Why does this sound like such an impossibility?

I read on this site a few months ago, and I think the principle is true here. Large bets on the river usually are attempts to make up for failing to build the pot earlier in the hand. UTG was probably trying to c/r the turn but you checked behind. Why get crazy on the river?

this is an autrocisty to your stack. Why jeopardize that for a chop? which is only 284,000 chips, but if you call an all in and you lose it's 1,012,064 how can you afford to take this chance?

this seems pretty simple, but does the GAP concept not apply here? He beat you to the pot and now you can't call, and I really don't understand why you would want to, don't get too greedy. If you fold maybe you'll wake up to a real hand like A-K or a high pocket pair and you can try and get some chips with those hands