Good spot? Bad Spot? Does it matter?

[Dave D]

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Party 40K

Bubble just broke, blinds just moved to 1.5/3K, some small ante.
Villan has been aggressive, but he had the stack on the bubble, so I dont want to get too carried away with that.

Villan min-raised UG (a lot of his have been) to 6K
Hero is in CO with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], with 17K.

Villan folded the last time he open min-raised UG, but that was when the only stack that covered him bet 24K. I know he isnt folding, but at this point, does it matter?

I have already run numbers on this, and will post them later. I wanted to see what everyone else thought. But I think this spot goes beyond CEV.

I need to accumulate a crazy amount of chips to get to a final table. With 6xBB, I am basically pushing every orbit, probably twice if I can. 13xBB, allows me much more 'play' (resteals, BoB plays, SNG, etc). Given that the bogey is so far out of site, I think the value of 13xBB is worth more than what CEV would suggest.

thoughts on either part?

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Obviously, I would love to be first in on this hand, but we don't have that here.

I think is a call. You're 100% right about the 40k, being ITM doesn't even mean anything in this tourney, as there's still 200 people left, and the blinds are only going to go up more steeply. If you say his raising range is wide, I'd push here and hope for the best. Maybe we're up against a worse ace, or a coinflip with a TON of equity (nevermind the CEV consideration you're basically talking about, having 6 BBs is no good).

And yes, he's calling you something like 85% of the time here, because its the 40k and most people are idiots.

Seriously, I would *not* assume he's a good player, even if he has a stack.

edit: and it's UTG, not UG, you donk.

Just to add, though ATs isn't a great hand, and I'd much much rather be first in, you have 6 BBs, and the blinds will go up fast. I just don't think you have a good chance of getting a better hand soon enough. Hope for him to have a lower pair, which is entirely possible (people often minraise lower pairs in these things for some reason). I would *not* be surprised to see 99-, suited connectors, or worse aces at least 50% of the time here.

[NHFunkii]

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Looks like we think different. Anyway here's my rationale
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early? We are over 90% through the field.

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But you just burst the bubble. If you get out, you're prolly taking home how much -- $27.7234??. If you're pushing this, you're basically saying I'm in a hurry to double up, I want a coin flip, or will take my entry fee back.

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That is a curious range. Does he fold QQ-77? any hand with an Ace as well?

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you're right, he does not. However, IMHO unlikely that he is minraising w them as well.

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umm... hell yeah I want to double up. I have less than six big blinds...

I would push this as doubling up will give you significantly more than double your current equity (too to the crappiness of being a shortstack). But you understand that and it's just a question of quantifying how much that is - something I have no idea how to do. But my instincts are generally pretty good about this sort of thing so I would guess it's a push.

[A_PLUS]

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umm... hell yeah I want to double up. I have less than six big blinds...

I would push this as doubling up will give you significantly more than double your current equity (too to the crappiness of being a shortstack). But you understand that and it's just a question of quantifying how much that is - something I have no idea how to do. But my instincts are generally pretty good about this sort of thing so I would guess it's a push.

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This was my exact thinking at the table. I thought, probably behind, but I just cant fold ATs in what looks like a heads up pot with 6xBB.

Then I ran the numbers, and realized I was in worse shape than I thought against what I thought was a reasonable range (you know, one that includes QQ-88, and AJ+). Then I started thinking about it. I was going to be getting my chips in 3-4 times in the next 2 orbits. So, I would have been doubling or busting anyway. Given that I pretty much know I am taking the worst of it here, maybe I should have waited.

Also, I suck out so much better when I am the one who pushes. As a matter of fact, the only reason I was still alive, was b/c I tried to pwn limpers at the 100/200 level with 2800 in chips, and rode 72o straight through 2 callers to get to 8K in chips.