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#11
07-14-2006, 10:12 PM
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Re: Life is Never Easy
Yeah, I kinda didn't elaborate on when the board pairs for a reason, but fine.
I'm going to assume we lead out because I think this is pretty standard. Villain calls because if he raises this is an easy push. So pot ~1500 on turn. We have ~5200. If the board pairs, well, I don't particularly like any line. -A large bet and we're now folding out anything that would've just called the flop bet that we beat and it commits us to calling the all-in versus hands that have us dead. -A small bet and we now invite Villain to bluff (or more often semi-bluff) us off our hand leaving us a pretty difficult decision. -A check allows A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]X[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] to check behind and pay us no more and let's hands that beat us take us to Valuetown because we can't fold to one bet just because the board pairs. That being said, I think the times we are just geting called by big overpairs and diamond draws outweighs the times we are getting bluffed off our hand. So the matter just becomes betting enough to charge draws but making it small enough to make a push from Villain a major overbet that will better define their hand (I think this makes sense). So if board pairs, I'm betting 900 and calling a push short of a visual read. 
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#12
07-14-2006, 10:21 PM
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Re: Life is Never Easy
Okay, seeing as how I liked the c/r line for profitability reasons (without reads that villain is aggro that is). Let's hypothetically assume villain CB's for 400 (2/3 pot). The pot would now be 1000. If we also assume the worst case scenario is villain has 1 diamond, then villain has 9 outs, with 45 cards unknown. So, villain has 4:1 shot at hitting his card on the turn. He has 2:1 odds of hitting his card on the river. The implied odds aren't there for villain if board is 4-flush, so he will need to play based on pot odds alone. Needing 2:1 for both cards and a pot of 1000 after his CB, I raise it to 1600 (his 400 + 1200 for a pot total of 2200, in which he will have to call 1200). This will achieve several purposes. 1) it will give him incorrect odds to call if he is chasing a flush and 2) it will make him think he has correct odds to call if he has overs to the board that he believes are good for winning the pot.
Betting anything more than this will obviously bloat the pot for those times when villain incorrectly chases and hits. If our C/R is reraised, I'm prepared to get it allin, because the dealers can't be cruel enough to deal him 2 diamonds. edit: technically we will only need to make it worse odds than 4:1 on the flop, because villain will also have to be expecting to call another barrel after another non-diamond turn card.
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#14
07-14-2006, 10:40 PM
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Re: Life is Never Easy
[ QUOTE ]
OevgO, I'm not too worried about the board pairing, as it is not as likely that villain hit a set on this flop. [/ QUOTE ] Their set turning into a full house when the board pairs is about 5% of my dread when the turn is a 2.
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#15
07-14-2006, 10:41 PM
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Re: Life is Never Easy
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] OevgO, I'm not too worried about the board pairing, as it is not as likely that villain hit a set on this flop. [/ QUOTE ] Their set turning into a full house when the board pairs is about 5% of my dread when the turn is a 2. [/ QUOTE ] just checking.
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#16
07-14-2006, 10:47 PM
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Re: Life is Never Easy
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] OevgO, I'm not too worried about the board pairing, as it is not as likely that villain hit a set on this flop. [/ QUOTE ] Their set turning into a full house when the board pairs is about 5% of my dread when the turn is a 2. [/ QUOTE ] Actually if the turn is a 2, AdAx and a whole bunch of other pairs with/without diamonds will happily proceed to bustotown so I'm kinda good with getting it in there. But bet/3 betting sucks because we hate being called, so...hmm, I think I wanna c/c, bet a blank.
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#18
07-14-2006, 10:52 PM
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Re: Life is Never Easy
[ QUOTE ]
Foot and Taken, We are too deep to get all-in with only two actions on this flop, without it being a massive (and generally bad) overbet. [/ QUOTE ] While I agree all-in raise is a big overbet, this is a hand that can really hurt us. With 600 in the pot and a bet of 450 from villian, a pot bet is 1500 which won't be enough for implied odds if villian has the Ad. Also I don't want to leave room for the Ad to outplay me. I woud rather give up some equity to play it safe at this level with this hand. If villian leads than I discount the flopped big flush. Also a push may have folding equity against a small flush such as T9 since it would be difficult for villian to put you on a straight. He may put you on a set or Ad but certainly he could not throw out a biger flush from you and he is not that invested in the pot at this point. I might play it differently if there were some reads but otherwise I'm just going to play it safe. Even with the big overbet I don't think I am throwing my risk reward out of wack since I really think a big flush would not lead the flop and I have folding equity on a small flush.
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