How good is 99 here?

[jcm4ccc]

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I think a stop and go is actually a possibility here. You don't have much or any PF FE. If you call preflop and then push the flop, the villian has to call 130k to win 300k. That's about 2.3 to 1. If villian has AK and missed the flop, you want him to call your push, but not by that much. He may possibly fold TT or JJ to an A or K high flop. So I think it's possible. Depends, I think, on what range you put the villian on. Is he raising 30% of his stack with 77 - 88? If so, then pushing preflop would be preferable. But if his range is 99+, AJ+, then I think a stop and go has some merits (of course, if his range is that, a fold might be better).

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1)if that's his range, it's a really obvious fold
2)if you stop and go any flop, not only will you be getting called drawing to 2 outs a whole lot, you'll feel really stupid when it works and you're still drawing to 2 outs a lot

[/ QUOTE ] But if the villian's stack was 100k, then stop and go.

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If Villain is raising to 50k with a 100k stack, you'd want to stop and go?

Just get that idea out of your head, it's no good. Sorry.

Just fold PF, and I really don't think this is close.

[/ QUOTE ] Villian would have 4M. He could be doing that with a wide range of hands. He could think that a 3xbb raise looks stronger than a push. He could be weak-tight and thinking about that world series money and not wanting to commit himself with AJo.

Of course, this is a hijack. I'll leave it alone.

[AceLuby]

I fold here and let them duke it out. 99 isn't going to be that great 3 handed and at best you are looking at 1 over against SB if you push AND OR folds, but since he raised to 50k I'd say he's ready to play for his whole stack, which means you probably have 3 overs to deal with. Fold.

How did you get your stack anyway? A couple big hands, or chipping away. If you're chipping away I'd say this is an easy fold as you can get chips in a better spot.

[davidross]

I still think arguments can be made for all 3 plays, it's that close. In the end I pushed. I never really considered calling. That's probably an error, and a hole in my game. I'm just not a real confident or aggresive post-flop player and I avoid situations where I will be OOP as much as possible. I had also been in push or fold mode for about 4 hours, sitting on anywhere from 6 to 12 BB's until recently doubling to where I was, and with blinds about to go to 10K/20K I hadn't changed my mindset.

As I said in the original post my gut was to fold. I've been avoiding middle pairs a lot lately, getting dealt a lot of big hands in crucial situations so patience had paid off for me, but for some reason here, the thought that I might be able to squeeze out the villain and race (presumably) with a big overlay made me push.

My reads were good, the SB had AK, and the villain had KJs but made the call anyway. A J flopped and he scooped the monster pot.

[adanthar]

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the thought that I might be able to squeeze out the villain and race (presumably) with a big overlay

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the 'presumably' part is not so good. at all.

[jcm4ccc]

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the thought that I might be able to squeeze out the villain and race (presumably) with a big overlay made me push.

[/ QUOTE ] there is no squeeze here when the sb is all-in. In fact, this is the opposite of a squeeze. In a squeeze, the villian is afraid to call because there is still a person to act after him. In this play, the villian is almost compelled to call because of the person after him.

[davidross]

why would you say that?

I think the SB pushes here with any pair, any ace, any 2 broadways. Clearly my 99 looks good against that range if I can get it heads up with an extra 50K in the pot on top of that.

Or do you mean presumable I can get the original raiser to fold? THat is to my mind the real question here. I assumed I could get him to fold hands like AJ, KQ etc.

[adanthar]

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I think the SB pushes here with any pair, any ace, any 2 broadways.

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UTG raises and SB pushes (calls) 22, A4, QT? Nah.

edit: why did I think it was a UTG raise? That changes it a lot, although I'd still fold PF. With SB's wider range (it's still not as wide as you think though) pushing's not that bad.

[locutus2002]

Tough spot David.

My default is to call and take the flop with as many chips as you have, but villain is probably committed and it will be difficult to sort out if he missed or hit the flop. You are getting implied odds to hit your set, but the hand won't play well ATF, as villain should bet the best and the worst hand.

I think you have to push. You are ~40% in the center and ~55% in the side pot. A win in this hand will put you in strong position to win the tournament (~30XBB). Many players are likely to be desperate, and there are likely to be many opportunities for a big stack on the bubble especially short-handed. I don't think you have any FE, so I wouldn't leave villain with any either. It's only about 2XBB EV+, but I think you can push down to EV- (~77) because of the impending CEV != $EV, and the afore mentioned opportunities.

I think a pure variance play has more merit than survival with 8 players to the FT.

[stevepa]

I agree this is a very close decision and I'm not 100% sure what's right. What I am fairly sure of is that this:

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What ran through my mind at the time was that I wasn't going to play the hand against the original raiser.

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is almost certainly too tight. If the sb folds I push 100% of the time.

Steve

[davidross]

I'm not sure i understand your reasoning here. The SB concerns me not at all. I'm only putting up 38K to match his bet. THe original raiser can cripple me,and I didn't feel like playing a coin flip (at best) against him. I think if his raise had come from the CO or on the button I would have auto-pushed. It was the chance to get those extra 54K that made it more attractive.