Overbet push with nuts: how often is this called?

[MyTurn2Raise]

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If you aren't going to VB, I think a C/R all-in is better than open push. What hand is calling your open push that isn't value betting the river when checked to, and then calling your push? There are many hands that will be when checked to (missed draws) you can get value from.

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I like this now...good thought process

[Sotiria]

What hand calls here? One that beats yours?

[MyTurn2Raise]

the weak players at SSNL will call here with anything

target the weak ones....not weak tight, but weak bad

[ChipStorm]

Tough choice between push, value bet, and crai...

A lone K probably only calls the value bet, checks through otherwise, folds to the push and crai. And on straight card combos and line, that seems like villain's most likely holding.

But any stronger hand -- and maybe a lot of TPGK hands -- would bet if you check, which would make the crai a beautiful thing.

Likewise you make more from checking vs. a busted draw, which also seems high on villain's range list.

Finally though, your straight is pretty well disguised, and I think >10% of players read you for a bluff here and look you up with anything decent.

Finger in the air, EV estimates....

Push: $111 * 15%+ = $16+
CRAI: $20 * 50% + 90 * 15% = ~$25
Value bet: $20 * 65% = $13

Who knows, but I think I like the CRAI best.

[QuentinCompson]

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<font color="blue">Hero is fairly new to the table and has no reads. Hero also hasn't done anything remarkable at the table yet.</font>

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I would only make the overbet push if I have been very active and I have the feeling that a villain is out to get me. Also, if I have been caught bluffing against the same villain. In that case, the overbet push can definately look like a bluff and get called by TPGK often enough to make it profitable.

[smoothraise]

First time I have posted without reading other posts. I want to give a true answer. I believe less than 10%. The board wasnt anything limpers generally have that calls other than a set. Most flush draws fold. That is ,however, opponent specific.

[xGREGORx]

CR AI - I agree is best.
- lets him bluff a broken draw
- lets him think a slowplayed set, 2pair is good

I think he most likely has a flush draw here.