3/6 - a little flop decision

[VespaRally]

Against the particular lineup you’ve described (loose and extremely passive) and having the image you’ve described (only showing down solid top-pair type hands) I think this weak draw can be played in a straightforward way. There is one very important point that you mentioned that affects your decision significantly: you haven’t seen a check-raise in two hours!
First, I assume that you know your bet on the flop with a Q-T-3 rainbow board has zero fold equity. With this many opponents, you are almost assured of being currently beat, and since it’s $3-$6 game your opponents will call you down. However, since you have a gutshot to the nuts and your top pair draw has some value (maybe two outs worth), AND (important point) you can be confident you won’t be check-raised, I think a bet is clear because it almost guarantees a free card. Passive opponents will not bet into someone with your image with less than two-pair on the turn so you can check behind and get that free card.
What’s also great about your situation is that you can bet for value if you hit an Ace or King on the river and confidently fold to a raise because you know that you’re beat then, most likely by the KJ if you hit your Ace, the AJ or the J9 if you hit your King, or any number of two pairs. Since you’re getting the right price to call a bet for the gutterball on the flop if someone bet and got a couple callers, I think the almost guarantee of a free card makes betting a no-brainer since your odds of hitting the gutshot decrease to only 5:1 with two to come. Anyone disagree?

[James.]

once you have a player automatically going to the river checking the flop becomes a strong play. once you have players that will not c/r(we can infer very straightforward play i think)if they don't catch you will often have the option to check the turn again regardless; if they do catch a hand on the turn they will often just bet into you(not check intending to raise)elminating alot of benefit of betting the flop to check the turn. this makes checking the flop the best play.

[Octopus]

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once you have a player automatically going to the river checking the flop becomes a strong play. once you have players that will not c/r(we can infer very straightforward play i think)if they don't catch you will often have the option to check the turn again regardless; if they do catch a hand on the turn they will often just bet into you(not check intending to raise)elminating alot of benefit of betting the flop to check the turn. this makes checking the flop the best play.

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Thank you. This gives me what I was looking for. I was thinking of having the player who would call to the river with any two as adding to my inclination to bet but you are right, it is an even better as a reason to check.

[crablegs33]

i typically play this the same way... more of a courtesy bet than anything... someone likely caught a piece, but you betting here on a passive table can often give you a free card the next round to draw to your gutter etc...

[crablegs33]

good point...