Thinking long and hard... KK on QJT board, open push for pot

[jskinn04]

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Hard to put him on a straight here. He either has a set or 2 pair. Against a set you have some straight outs, against 2 pair you have straight out plus 2 ks, 3 6s. I have to look at the numbers but its close.

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Good point about 6's being outs here. That makes it 13 outs to beat two pairs. Pot odds are are roughly 20/11:1 == 1.82:1. With 44 cards unaccounted for (his cards don't block any outs against hands that are ahead of us), x is number of outs needed.

44/x - 1 = 1.82 ==> x = 15.7.

Against a set, we've got ten outs so we're pretty far shy.

All that said, I call. He could be doing it with NFD, AQ, or pair+OESD. Calling is probably slightly -EV vs. an unknown villian but it's a close play. The reason I'd call is that I don't want people thinking that when I prf and bet pot that I'm running from aggression thrown back at me on later streets.

What do you think?

[ImsaKidd]

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That makes it 13 outs to beat two pairs.

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You have 16 outs against any two pair.

8 str8 outs
2 K's
6 cards that pair the board and dont boat him. If he has QJ, T's and 6's give you a better 2 pair.

16 > 15.7 number stated in your post. Still dont know if its a call though.

[mikechops]

Easy call.

I find it hard to put him on big sets becasue he didn't raise your 'steal' from the button. I included them anyway along with AQ, two pairs and 98s for a straight - kind of unlikely too given the flop action.


Board: 6c Qh Tc Jd
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 44.7134 % 44.71% 00.00% { KcKs }
Hand 2: 55.2866 % 55.29% 00.00% { QQ-TT, 66, AQs, QTs+, 98s, AQo, QTo+ }

[jskinn04]

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That makes it 13 outs to beat two pairs.

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You have 16 outs against any two pair.

8 str8 outs
2 K's
6 cards that pair the board and dont boat him. If he has QJ, T's and 6's give you a better 2 pair.

16 > 15.7 number stated in your post. Still dont know if its a call though.

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Thanks for catching that. My bad.

[BalugaWhale]

this is close, I think I grit and call.

w/o the OESD this becomes a fold.

[xwillience]

wow i insta call this. this is more like top pair to me. not to mention all your outs vs short stack.

[PokerFink]

Man I go away for one week and SSNL gets more weak tight?!

Ye gods, you're probably ahead of his range here and getting 2:1 with a ton of outs if behind.

Instacall. Free money.

[NewUser2006]

OESD + overpair!!!! Call all day all night!

[Slap My Jack]

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Easy call.

I find it hard to put him on big sets becasue he didn't raise your 'steal' from the button.



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Especially in 25NL, I don't think people understand that you should reraise at steals. Even in 100NL I get coldcalled by aces and kings and check it down to the river.

[Mik1w]

Ok, thanks everyone.

Not that it matters, but I closed my eyes and called, villan showed A8s with two clubs. Could have had upto 18 outs I guess, with a lot of folding equity...?

Anyone like it? Anyone hate it? (villan't bet)