TT hand from a 109 - Page 2

KingDan · #11 05-23-2006, 10:31 PM

Bigbills are you also pushing your whiffed overcards?

supercomputer · #12 05-23-2006, 10:37 PM

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you're way to early to be raising here imo

[/ QUOTE ] No, he's not. Its a matter of personal preference but raising here is entirely reasonable. Calling or folding here is actually problematic, IMO.

OP: On an almost ideal flop for you you bet nearly 40% of your stack into a pot that was ~2/3 the size of your stack. Personally, I am as interested in why you made the size bet you did as many others will be? I suspect somebody will also point out that pushing here will probably get calls from weaker hands that the bet of 500 will.

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First look at potential caller's range. JJ+, 88,99,22 beat us and we're going broke anyway, so forget those. So what is the best way to play against:
AJ-AK (6 outs)
T9-A9 (5 outs)
T8-A8 (5 outs)
33-77 (2 outs)
flush draw (9 outs)
OESD (8 outs)
JTclubs is undoubtedly pushing this flop so leave that out.

Unless I'm leaving something out, these are the only hands we need to consider, correct?

Since we are pushing the turn, we need only consider their odds of beating us on the next card. (If they call again on the turn then even better)

The most likely scenario for villain is something like A9. That hand is 5/45 to hit the turn. That's 8-1. Do you still want everything to fold?

The worst for us is the flush draw, which is 9/45 or 4-1.

Betting 500 gives villain 3-1 odds. No matter what he has, he's making a mistake to call.

It's true we are risking our tournament life. But if an 8-1 dog hits, we are busted from one tournament where we had only $1650 to start with. The next 8 times he misses we get $500...or $4000 total.

What hands in this range (remembering that BB has yet to act on button's decision) are calling a push, but not 500? I think more are calling 500 and not a push.

supercomputer · #13 05-23-2006, 10:43 PM

I forgot one likely villain: overcards with a flush draw. These are the toughest to make the right play against here. But most of those will come over the top anyway, so I'm not too worried about that.

curtains · #14 05-23-2006, 10:45 PM

Easy raise preflop, Betting the flop is obvious, although with TT I'd probably bet a bit more, but whatever 500 is fine too. On the turn you are totally committed.

vinyard · #15 05-23-2006, 10:46 PM

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Betting 500 gives villain 3-1 odds. No matter what he has, he's making a mistake to call.

[/ QUOTE ] The first villain is making a mistake. After he has called the BB is getting peoper odds to call with all sorts of combo draws that you are ahead of. Remember, he got 4:1 on his intial pre-flop call; he can have a very wide range here.

I see your point though in a HU hand. Three way I am pretty sure the math doesn't hold up.

bigballz · #16 05-23-2006, 10:46 PM

dude you are way overthinking this. A 500 bet leaves you committed and everyone else knows that so they are probobly going to play it as if you pushed anyways. If anything though, it looks scarier and may fold some hands that you want calling your push.

bigballz · #17 05-23-2006, 10:48 PM

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Easy raise preflop, Betting the flop is obvious, although with TT I'd probably bet a bit more, but whatever 500 is fine too. On the turn you are totally committed.

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you wouldn't shove flop?

supercomputer · #18 05-23-2006, 10:51 PM

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Betting 500 gives villain 3-1 odds. No matter what he has, he's making a mistake to call.

[/ QUOTE ] The first villain is making a mistake. After he has called the BB is getting peoper odds to call with all sorts of combo draws that you are ahead of. Remember, he got 4:1 on his intial pre-flop call; he can have a very wide range here.

I see your point though in a HU hand. Three way I am pretty sure the math doesn't hold up.

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If button calls, BB will have to call 500 to win 2000. He will be getting 4-1, or exactly correct odds to call with a flush draw and almost correct with an OESD. We are not giving him "good" odds. Just correct odds. But this is assuming a. he has a draw. b. button calls. c. he wouldn't just open push, and will not come over the top now.

And if he has a pair or overcards, he is still getting incorrect odds.

supercomputer · #19 05-23-2006, 10:54 PM

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dude you are way overthinking this. A 500 bet leaves you committed and everyone else knows that so they are probobly going to play it as if you pushed anyways. If anything though, it looks scarier and may fold some hands that you want calling your push.

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A 500 bet does not leave me committed if I don't have a hand. 500 can look like a c-bet here. I've still got 8.5 BBs if I fold.

vinyard · #20 05-23-2006, 10:56 PM

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A 500 bet does not leave me committed if I don't have a hand. 500 can look like a c-bet here. I've still got 8.5 BBs if I fold.

[/ QUOTE ] 1650-300-800<>850! This would have all been clearer if this hand were converted properly. So you had 1950 chips when the hand started and not 1650?