Pocket Kings in the hole--but I'm playing the board. Help!

[Haupt_234]

What do you guys think of this one?

PF donker is 49/5/.9 over a lot of hands. I think this example is similar but a little more dangerous since the card needed is more likely to be held (the queen).

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $5.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, CO (poster) calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (10 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, SB calls, BB calls, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, SB folds, BB calls, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (11.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, CO folds, BB calls, Hero ????

Haupt_234

[Buckmulligan]

I fold this river, haupt.

[theTourne]

[ QUOTE ]
tourne, Let's check this again here.

In one instance you are getting 10.75:1. In the second you are getting 13.75:1. The three bets to you are part of the pot and are not insignificant.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you read my posts?

You claimed that the river call pays 3.5 to 1 (if the pot is chopped). I pointed out your error; it pays 2.7 to 1. Do you disagree?

[Gazzbut]

basically you are risking 1 big bet to get a 1/4 share of the current pot before you bet.

The current pot is 13.75 therefore you are risking 1 big bet to win 3.4375 bets. Therefore the odds you are getting are 3.4375 to 1.

If you pretend that no bets have gone in on the river then your calculation is right but the bets have gone in on the river and you will get 1/4 of them if you call.

[Gazzbut]

Id guess at least one of them has a part of the board so your only chance to take this down would be to raise.

That would be either a gutsy play / total spewage!

[Clinger]

[ QUOTE ]
Id guess at least one of them has a part of the board so your only chance to take this down would be to raise.

That would be either a gutsy play / total spewage!

[/ QUOTE ]

I considered this as well but given that these people have called everything to this point, I decided it was the latter [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[theTourne]

[ QUOTE ]
basically you are risking 1 big bet to get a 1/4 share of the current pot before you bet.

The current pot is 13.75 therefore you are risking 1 big bet to win 3.4375 bets. Therefore the odds you are getting are 3.4375 to 1.

If you pretend that no bets have gone in on the river then your calculation is right but the bets have gone in on the river and you will get 1/4 of them if you call.

[/ QUOTE ]

NO! We're risking 1 bet to win 1/4 of the FINAL pot. After we call, the final pot will be 14.75. We will get 1/4 of that final pot, which is 3.7 BBs. So the pot is laying us 2.7 to 1.

Nowhere did I pretend no bets went in on the river. I used a shortcut for the calculation in my first post above, and it has become apparent that I shouldn't have done that, as it caused confusion.

The difference between my answer (2.7 to 1) and your (3.45 to 1) is .75BB. Your answer assumes we get our whole river bet back, while in fact we are only going to get 1/4 of it back (a difference of .75BB).

[Gazzbut]

Seriously man, get your calculator out and check your math.

edit: hold on, im getting my calculator out and checking mine! [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[Gazzbut]

yup, 2.7/1 it is...split pots sure is confoozin.

[theTourne]

Agreed. For me, the easiest way to deal with this situation is imagine each player taking back their river bet and then splitting up the post-turn pot. Unfortunately, that calculation proved confusing when I showed it about.