Bottom is in? Anatomy of a Key Reversal Day

[monkeyman]

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wow you people really are blind

anyone long in this market will get killed

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i don't know which is worse, people who think this isn't a buying opportunity, or people who think technical anaylsis is legitimate.

[Kirkrrr]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
wow you people really are blind

anyone long in this market will get killed

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't know which is worse, people who think this isn't a buying opportunity, or people who think technical anaylsis is legitimate.

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Now THAT is what I call an investor who has the courage of conviction! My man, I predict you're going to do really, really great in the markets. However much money you have in it right now, double... no, TRIPLE it. Go ALL OUT!! By delaying making a total commitment you're only delaying the day you make your FORTUNE!!!

On topic, though, the closest support I'm seeing for the DOW (on a weekly chart) is at 12,300, S&P I want to say 1,375 but I'm a lot less sure about that one. I think it makes a lot more sense in trying to catch a short-term rally like the kind we had last week, but it's way too early to start looking for the "bottom." I will be very surprised if the DOW doesn't go well below 10,000 within a year, and that's a very optimistic view imo.

Jimbo,
We hibernate during bull markets!!

Kirk

[Tweety]

S+P's down 15 points overnight, still massive pain out there, plus it's a Friday.

Are you still bullish for today?

[Fishhead24]

I can't imagine the market not having a RED day today(Friday).

[Jimbo]

[ QUOTE ]
On topic, though, the closest support I'm seeing for the DOW (on a weekly chart) is at 12,300, S&P I want to say 1,375 but I'm a lot less sure about that one. I think it makes a lot more sense in trying to catch a short-term rally like the kind we had last week, but it's way too early to start looking for the "bottom." I will be very surprised if the DOW doesn't go well below 10,000 within a year, and that's a very optimistic view imo.

Jimbo,
We hibernate during bull markets!!

Kirk


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I don't know if you would consider me a full fledged bull but I've been trading/dabbling since 1974 and have seen both the good and the bad. Perhaps you could consider me a long term bull which loves a volatile market like we are in these days. I don't always trade short term, I put $5000 (pretty much all I had) into TEMWX in 1979 and haven't touched it since.

INHO there is less than a .1% chance the DOW will drop below 10,000 within a year. Perhaps I am way off base but I don't see how anyone can make that prediction and believe it.

Have a nice long nap Kirk, see you when DOW 10,000 returns.

Jimbo

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
wow you people really are blind

anyone long in this market will get killed

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't know which is worse, people who think this isn't a buying opportunity, or people who think technical anaylsis is legitimate.

[/ QUOTE ]

TA is legitimate, ask Simons or Shaw or Trout of JPJones, or any other investor who has made literally $billions of dollars doing it.

You are entitled to your opinion, but the facts are that the best practicioners of TA have made $billions. I agree ahead of time that it is very, very hard to be that good at it.

But it is very, very hard to make $billions using FA as well.

[Phone Booth]

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INHO there is less than a .1% chance the DOW will drop below 10,000 within a year. Perhaps I am way off base but I don't see how anyone can make that prediction and believe it.


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Well, if you're so sure, are you massively short DJX puts, prices for which don't come close to agreeing with your view? I see a 3.10 bid for Dec 08 100 put - even if you're just 99% sure, instead of 99.9% sure, this is practically free money.

[Jimbo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

INHO there is less than a .1% chance the DOW will drop below 10,000 within a year. Perhaps I am way off base but I don't see how anyone can make that prediction and believe it.


[/ QUOTE ]

Well, if you're so sure, are you massively short DJX puts, prices for which don't come close to agreeing with your view? I see a 3.10 bid for Dec 08 100 put - even if you're just 99% sure, instead of 99.9% sure, this is practically free money.

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Yeah, ask all the Index Shorters how they liked waking up this morning?

May I reasonably assume you are another DOW below 10,000 within a year doom and gloomer ? Good luck with that, we are both able to make a profit in a fluctuating market. If the DOW drops to below 10K too quickly there will be other catastrophic reasons behind the slide which will overshadow any concern I might have about losing money.

Jimbo

[Phone Booth]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

INHO there is less than a .1% chance the DOW will drop below 10,000 within a year. Perhaps I am way off base but I don't see how anyone can make that prediction and believe it.


[/ QUOTE ]

Well, if you're so sure, are you massively short DJX puts, prices for which don't come close to agreeing with your view? I see a 3.10 bid for Dec 08 100 put - even if you're just 99% sure, instead of 99.9% sure, this is practically free money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, ask all the Index Shorters how they liked waking up this morning?

May I reasonably assume you are another DOW below 10,000 within a year doom and gloomer ? Good luck with that, we are both able to make a profit in a fluctuating market. If the DOW drops to below 10K too quickly there will be other catastrophic reasons behind the slide which will overshadow any concern I might have about losing money.

Jimbo

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Not at all, just trying to help you make money [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] It seems odd to me that you believe that these puts are overvalued by several orders of magnitude and you don't care to want to profit from this.

[mtgordon]

Jimbo - Find the knob on your sarcasm meter and turn that puppy up. I'm pretty sure he's basically saying put your money where your mouth is.