MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis

[Smackdab]

Watching the O/U line movements for the past hour. Briefly dipped to 54 1/2 and I do mean BRIEFLY. All major book back at 55. Think I'll look at the added CBB games to see if there is any value out there. The total here is too scary.

[iggymcfly]

Just got on Cincy at +3 (+115) for 2.5 units. The Bengals were my preseason pick to win the Super Bowl and they've been playing like they're that good the last few weeks. Indy's banged up, and while they want the 1 seed, you just can't be as motivated to get a good seed as you are to get a playoff spot, especially in Indy's case where they've had the top seed and blown it before. I think Performify's assessment of Cincy -1 being a fair line sounds spot on.

[McFadden]

O/U is now at 55.5 on Bodog

[RichGangi]

How does everyone feel about taking CIN on the ML(+150)? Is there more value here, or taking the 3 pts(+105)?

[RichGangi]

[ QUOTE ]
I like both of these plays. Bengals +3.5 is my game of the week. I agree on the under as well, this game isn't going to be as high scoring as the general public would think with Rudi...Rudi...Rudi pounding the ball.

[/ QUOTE ]
Im getting +3/+105 for CIN, P. Do you think the ML (+150) might be a better option here, or just take the pts.?

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the +3.5 is huge here. I have the true line at Cincy -1.

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF?

C'mon. You either have the worst unit system ever created for are kidding yourself.

Kelly says this is a >20% of bankroll play if you capping is correct. From this we can draw one of two conclusions: 1) You have a greater than 30% ROI and are choosing to pass this up for who knows why. 2) Your line is wrong.

[alecb]

I show this game as basically a pick em. The ML for the Bengals is the best value.

[Maurice]

[ QUOTE ]
O/U is now at 55.5 on Bodog

[/ QUOTE ]

Last year, these 2 teams combined for 63 points by halftime! I'm trying to think logically here, but if the Colts D is bad, don't you think Peyton knows that he has to score a ton of points to win this game? He knows they can't win a 20-17 game here. Also, with all the talk about losing recently and the offense being inept (by Indy standards) I kind of believe Peyton will come out smoking hot with alot of no huddle against the Bengals D. Once TD's start flying from the Colts, the Bengals will try to equally abuse the Colts injury riddled secondary with CJ, TJ and Henry with alot of no huddle. If the Bengals can get a lead, I expect them to pound the ball alot late in the 3rd and 4th qtrs. However both teams know they have to score, and Palmer has got to be thinking we can destroy the Colts via the air. I expect more passing early and more rushing late. However Bratkowski is an interesting O-coordinator- so I could be wrong. But I would think he would want to score early through the air, then if they have the lead in the 4th quarter, just melt the clock with the run and keep peyton off the field.

Also, the Bengals D looked good over the past 3 weeks, but of course it's hard to look bad against the Browns, Raiders and Ravens offenses. Adams is playing better, plus we got our Safety back in Jackson. However, it's not like they are superstars and their addition turns us from a 30th ranked D, to a top 10 unit. We are a 20-24 ranked D. The same defense that allowed Brees to throw for 500+ yards and for San Diego to score 30+ points in 1 half.

I put 3 units on the over at 54.5 earlier this week. Both teams can easily explode for a combined 21 points in 5 minutes. Both teams know they need to score to win, and they will.

[rjp]

Oops.

[WackityWhiz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think the +3.5 is huge here. I have the true line at Cincy -1.

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF?

C'mon. You either have the worst unit system ever created for are kidding yourself.

Kelly says this is a >20% of bankroll play if you capping is correct. From this we can draw one of two conclusions: 1) You have a greater than 30% ROI and are choosing to pass this up for who knows why. 2) Your line is wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]If you're going to use Kelly then you better make sure it's fractional. Lets say this game is a true Bengals win 52% of the time. If you risk 20% of your bankroll on a 52% true odds play then you're going to go broke 2.55% of the time (an 0-5 streak). Not to mention that the other situations in which you don't win don't put you in a good position. 20% on a true odds ~52% is never the right choice.

[/ QUOTE ]

What if I think the true line is Cincy -10? Do I just go arrrr eeeen

ARRRR EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEN