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#12
06-16-2007, 07:11 PM
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Re: tough spot vs willw9
I don't think shoving is bad here. He'll almost never have AK/AQ, and two sets are ruled out. It's pretty much A3s (which he likely folds preflop but I'm not sure) or 33, or one of a million different draws and the occasional air.
I'd still fold, but once in a while I'd be willing to stack off here in a situation like this where the board is unlikely to have hit him hard. 
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#17
06-16-2007, 08:08 PM
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Re: tough spot vs willw9
When I say lol, I don't mean I'm doing this all the time with air. I just thought it was funny that Buke so definitively said "NEVER."
In addition, I find that is is incredibly easy to read hands in multiway pots. If someone fires into a 4 way pot, I can very accurately narrow their range, and I can exploit them accordingly. Also, most of the responses have narrowed my range to exactly like 2 hands, 33 and big draws. It is clear that we don't want to run AJ against this range, because we are SA/WB yada yada. Since I know that I can accurately peg the first "shell" (bet) in a multiway pot, it should be even easier to peg the second "shell" (my raise) in this pot, right? You guys think you narrowed it down to basically 2 hands and nothing else. Wouldn't deviating from this be just a little profitable since most players are so confident in their read here? FWIW, you could obviously use my argument against me for trying to exploit the "first shell" range, but most players just don't have the balls to fire 22 as the PFR. That, and its hugely -EV. However, if I raise the initial bet with air, it's not a "stab in the dark range expansion" like firing the flop with 22 would be. It's going to be a heads up pot, and not very many hands in villain's range (which I have pegged pretty accurately) can stand heat.
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#18
06-16-2007, 08:30 PM
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Re: tough spot vs willw9
[ QUOTE ]
When I say lol, I don't mean I'm doing this all the time with air. I just thought it was funny that Buke so definitively said "NEVER." In addition, I find that is is incredibly easy to read hands in multiway pots. If someone fires into a 4 way pot, I can very accurately narrow their range, and I can exploit them accordingly. Also, most of the responses have narrowed my range to exactly like 2 hands, 33 and big draws. It is clear that we don't want to run AJ against this range, because we are SA/WB yada yada. Since I know that I can accurately peg the first "shell" (bet) in a multiway pot, it should be even easier to peg the second "shell" (my raise) in this pot, right? You guys think you narrowed it down to basically 2 hands and nothing else. Wouldn't deviating from this be just a little profitable since most players are so confident in their read here? FWIW, you could obviously use my argument against me for trying to exploit the "first shell" range, but most players just don't have the balls to fire 22 as the PFR. That, and its hugely -EV. However, if I raise the initial bet with air, it's not a "stab in the dark range expansion" like firing the flop with 22 would be. [/ QUOTE ] You can narrow their range to what? Something that hit this flop? "Expanding your range" in a spot like this is terrible. [ QUOTE ] It's going to be a heads up pot, and not very many hands in villain's range (which I have pegged pretty accurately) can stand heat. [/ QUOTE ] ORLY? What about AQ, AK, AA, QQ? These hands are a big part of his range that would cbet this flop multiway.
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#19
06-16-2007, 08:37 PM
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Re: tough spot vs willw9
I think AK/AQ are in his range sometimes here...you dont have to ALWAYS raise them in position. Also, I flat call the flop with 33 here sometimes to induce one of the other players to call. PFR will also put us on a FD a lot and fire the turn with an Ace.
Anyway, I fold because he really isn't doing this with air here very much at all- both because its horrible with 2 players to act, and because he knows the PFR would not bet the flop without hitting it in some way- thus reducing his FE.
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