Was I lucky or is my thought process correct..thanks

[zizazziza]

here is the converter for ya
http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter/

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
RIver comes with Q so I know have increased my outs to 13 with 44 unseen cards. This is about 29%, a little better than 1-4 on my money, so I call 4 to win 48.

[/ QUOTE ]Fats - I think you mean "turn" comes with a queen. And I see more than 13 outs, but they're not all for the whole pot. (I see 17 outs, but figure them as the equivalent of 12 scoop outs; I'm not counting the king and queen of hearts as outs).

At any rate, you easily have favorable odds to call a turn bet, and you even have favorable odds to jam. I'll try to explain.

You need at least three opponents who will call your raise in order to have favorable odds to raise with this particular hand/board after the turn.

To figure this precisely is complicated. After the fourth board card is turned, the 44 missing cards fall into eight categories. There’s a separate calculation for each group, resulting in eight sub totals, some negative and some positive. But there's a short-cut to figuring how many opponents you need to have favorable odds that gets you close enough to the truth.

To quickly estimate how many opponents are needed here:
• a. Count nut flush outs that will probably scoop as worth 1 each, disregarding straight flush considerations. Do not count cards that will make your flush but will also pair the board.
• b. Count outs where an opponent might easily tie for high, but where no low will be possible (mostly these are high nut straight outs) as worth about .9 each.
• c. Count nut flush outs where low will be possible, but not for Hero as worth about .5 each. (Again, disregard straight flush considerations).
• d. Count high straight outs where low will be possible, but not for Hero as worth about .4 each.

• a. (# missing, non-pairing, high hearts)*1
• b. (# missing, non-pairing, low hearts)*0.5
• c. (# missing non-heart aces)*0.4
• d. (# missing non-heart nines, tens, jacks)*0.9 each.

Round up roughly as often as you round down so as to keep everything in whole numbers. This is a crude ball-park estimation anyhow. If we wanted to be precise, we’d do the calculation more rigorously. Whole numbers are fine.

• a. (2)*1 = 2
• b. (5)*0.5 = 3
• c. 3)*0.4 =1
• d. (7)*0.9 each = 6

(1) Total the above, rounding off to whole numbers (some up, some down, as shown above) as makes sense to get “scoop equivalent” outs and subtract from 44.
(2) Divide the result of this subtraction by the number of scoop equivalent outs.
(3) Round up to the nearest whole number.

For the hand/board in question, (5*.5)+(2*1)+(3*.4)+(7*.9)=~12.
Then 44-12 = 32, and
32/12 = 2.something, which rounds up to three.

Note that when figuring if you have favorable odds to initiate fresh money into the pot, the pot size is not considered. The pot size is only considered when figuring whether or not you have favorable odds to merely call.

My explanation may seem complicated, but the process is really easy as pie to do and takes less than ten seconds while sitting at the table playing a hand. Hopefully you complete the math while it’s someone else’s turn to act, so that nobody ever knows you’re doing any figuring.

At any rate, usually you need the nuts one way or the other to jam on the turn because you don’t have enough scoop equivalent outs or enough opponents. However with this particular hand/board after the turn, even though you still need to make your draw to make a decent hand, three opponents who will call your raises is enough to jam.

I'd have directly bet this queen on the turn. but once you checked and there was a bet plus a raise with four opponents, you had favorable odds to make it three bets.

[ QUOTE ]
River comes and I hit the nuts, so I value bet with three callers.

[/ QUOTE ]Yes. When you hit one of your outs on the river, you want to get as much money into the pot as possible.

[ QUOTE ]
Is my thought process correct

[/ QUOTE ]My own thought process was a bit different than yours.

[ QUOTE ]
or did I just get lucky?

[/ QUOTE ]
Although you didn't get the perfect river card (which would have been the ten of hearts), you were lucky to make the nut straight on the river, and you were lucky to be the only one to make it.

Buzz

[grandgnu]

Buzz, you could've just typed "yes"

Good god man your intellect is dizzying. Good thing I just play by "feel", I'd never get that math-intensive. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]