NBA Overlays - December

[Performify]

Keep up the heater, RJP. Nice stuff so far.

[rjp]

alecb, I'd be interested in any data you've got associated with this theory. I agree in that I feel the Kings had little chance to win, but that the odds justified a wager.

Performify, just waiting for a little variance to kick it. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[rjp]

YTD: 45-26-1 (+10.62 units; ROI: 14.96%)

New Jersey Nets +135

The Nets were unable to stick with Dallas last time out at home, and they were blown out big. Phoenix is a flashy team thanks to the style of ball they play, but they’ve not been all that great on the road so far this year. Most of the teams Phoenix has faced thus far on the road are some good teams out West, so you can’t discredit the record too much. The key will come down to focus and intensity, and given the situations in which these teams come into this game I figure the Nets to likely be the team that will play harder. I figure this to be a game that each team figures to win just as often as the other, so getting odds of +135 with either side figures to be profitable.

Detroit Pistons +7.5 (-111)

The Pistons have lost two straight games to two of the teams at the bottom of the NBA. This would make you logically conclude that they’ll be no match for the Dallas Mavericks, right? Dallas has been playing at a very high level recently, but Detroit is filled with a veteran team that should be motivated to play better as a unit. I expect Dallas to win this game most of the time, but the Pistons aren’t a team they’ll likely run over.

[Rick305]

Im in the pistons with you

7.5 points is just too many points to give to a quality team like Detroit.

[rjp]

YTD: 46-27-1 (+10.52 units; ROI: 14.41%)

Orlando Magic -4 (-110)

Detroit comes into Orlando tonight off a big win against the Mavericks last night. Recent play suggests the Magic should be larger favorites than this, and given the scheduling circumstances I figure the Magic win this game often enough to be profitable laying 4 points, and I find more value with laying the points than the money line.

Minnesota Timberwolves +1 (-110)

In the minds of most bettors Utah is the obvious favorite to win this game. In reality, however, Minnesota hasn’t been playing all that bad as of late, and given scheduling factors I figure Minnesota should be small favorites to win this game. As such, I find value with taking the point at -110 odds.

[rjp]

YTD: 47-28-1 (+10.43 units; ROI: 13.91%)

Orlando Magic -725

It’s not too often I’ll lay odds this high, but the 76ers vs Magic game is a unique situation. AI has “probably” played his last game with the 76ers, the team’s true leader on the floor. I’ll almost always take a large underdog even with the worst of teams, but it’s unlikely the 76ers will be motivated to win. With the Magic coming off a tough loss to Detroit last night I expect to rarely lose this bet. As always, however, nothing is 100%, so if you like the odds here too then be sure you’re risking 1 to win X instead of X to win 1.

Washington Wizards +107

The Rockets and Wizards come into this game both playing back-to-back games, but it’s likely the Wizards play with more intensity than Houston. Washington is no slouch at home either way, but the Rockets come into this game off a huge win in Charlotte. There’s a good chance Houston’s looking forward to their next game against the Lakers, so I expect the Wizards to win this game more often than not.

[rjp]

YTD: 48-29-1 (+9.57 units; ROI: 12.43%)

Los Angeles Lakers +210

Based on published reports I expect Kobe Bryant to play in this game tonight. The Spurs have played very well on the road so far this year, but the Lakers have also played very well at home so far this year.

I figure the Lakers to be more likely to win this game than the line indicates, and I expect a better long term return with the money line over the points.

[Queensgrad]

[ QUOTE ]
YTD: 48-29-1 (+9.57 units; ROI: 12.43%)

Los Angeles Lakers +210

Based on published reports I expect Kobe Bryant to play in this game tonight. The Spurs have played very well on the road so far this year, but the Lakers have also played very well at home so far this year.

I figure the Lakers to be more likely to win this game than the line indicates, and I expect a better long term return with the money line over the points.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the bet!

[Rick305]

RJP

Great job with your games [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

From your analysis, you show that your a winner.

keep it up

[rjp]

Glad LA came through, but I realized my software didn't grade a wager on 11/22 (it was still listed as pending). With the update my record after last night is 49-30-1 (+10.67 units; ROI: 13.51%).