NFL Week 2 - Time to pound the dogs?

[Parlay Slow]

Maybe the Raiders and Titans are getting a bunch of points cuz they are F*CKING AWFUL.

[FCBLComish]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont know how the Raiders score a point.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did they gain any yardage at all in the 2nd half?

[sygamel]

[ QUOTE ]
GB is WA at +3, thats a pretty big point for these 2 teams.

[/ QUOTE ]

WA? I don't see +3 anywhere. Do tell...

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I dont know how the Raiders score a point.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did they gain any yardage at all in the 2nd half?

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you watch the game?

[FCBLComish]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I dont know how the Raiders score a point.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did they gain any yardage at all in the 2nd half?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, my sacrasm was not apparant with my post.

Did you watch the game?

[/ QUOTE ]

[rjp]

The reality is that once you start laying 10+ points for a team at home or 7+ points for a team on the road you're putting yourself in a negative situation.

These teams may be "bad", but more often than not they cover the large numbers. Even if they rarely win the game you have a positive expectation with them at these high numbers.

It should also be obvious that these teams are more likely to be blown out by 14+ points, but this is because they don't win too much.

A good rule of thumb to follow is never lay more than 7 to 8 for a team at home, and never lay more than 6 for a team on the road.

If you can get double digits at standard odds you likely have a positive expectation. A majority of bettors either don't understand this or simply don't care. They love to bet for the blowout, but more often than not it simply doesn't happen.

[BobJoeJim]

[ QUOTE ]
O/U on the digits in the number of times Aaron Brooks gets sacked?

[/ QUOTE ]
FYP

[livin_a_lie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
GB is WA at +3, thats a pretty big point for these 2 teams.

[/ QUOTE ]

WA? I don't see +3 anywhere. Do tell...

[/ QUOTE ]

I see some of the lines have moved, bodog and bowmans still have +3.

[iggymcfly]

[ QUOTE ]
The reality is that once you start laying 10+ points for a team at home or 7+ points for a team on the road you're putting yourself in a negative situation.

These teams may be "bad", but more often than not they cover the large numbers. Even if they rarely win the game you have a positive expectation with them at these high numbers.

It should also be obvious that these teams are more likely to be blown out by 14+ points, but this is because they don't win too much.

A good rule of thumb to follow is never lay more than 7 to 8 for a team at home, and never lay more than 6 for a team on the road.

If you can get double digits at standard odds you likely have a positive expectation. A majority of bettors either don't understand this or simply don't care. They love to bet for the blowout, but more often than not it simply doesn't happen.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is a stupid rule. If a line's off, it's off. Sometimes the right line's 3, sometimes it's 7, sometimes it's 17. Now if you have some reason to believe that teams are being favored by too much (i.e. people overreacting to Week 1 games this week), then go ahead and take the dogs, but there are certainly situations where it's OK to take a double-digit favorite.

Indy last year, for instance was covering 13 and 14 point spreads week in and week out, because they were just that much better than their opponents.

[Murdz]

I like playing dogs. I never mind taking the points with a large number. The Oakland line looks real juicy to me. But this is not a good spot for them. Short week, terrible coaching staff, west coast team heading east and playing at 1 pm on Sunday? The Raiders had six months to prepare for San Diego and they completely laid an egg. How are they going to prepare for Baltimore in six days? It's an attractive number but in this case, I think you have to stay away.