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#11
10-23-2007, 02:30 PM
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Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Colorado +200 on Matchbook. Comes out to +196 after the fee. [/ QUOTE ] It's actually better than that because Matchbook has reduced all commissions to 1% for baseball this post-season. [/ QUOTE ] Didn't know that. +198 then, right? 
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#12
10-23-2007, 03:25 PM
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Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
[ QUOTE ]
Didn't know that. +198 then, right? [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, and it's actually been going since the regular season. Not postseason only. Also, if you're looking to bet the series, the price is -226/+220 right now, so if you put out an offer for -221, you'll probably get it matched.
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#13
10-23-2007, 08:13 PM
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Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
Boston series price at -225 now on Bodog.
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#14
10-23-2007, 08:24 PM
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Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
if anyone is interested in the ideal hedge amount for this bet combination, it's a complex calculation, but i can give you a simple xls file that helps.
live books were a desolate wasteland full of markets with 200% theoretical holds. (palms had NE -500 to win AFC). what's worse, the once-good Greek lines have been bet down, plus they opened the "win 3 straight games" Yes at -165 instead of +140. lame on all counts. not sure any props are really going to be any good outside of series and game lines. i guess i'll restrict the thread to those for now...
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#15
10-23-2007, 08:30 PM
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Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
Opened at -125, moved to -140 really fast (still a little value), then to -165/+135, which is no good on either side.
I've run through the 5D and Greek series result props with Yao's numbers from his blog, and the only one that was out of line was Boston +3 -3000 (his numbers gave -3100), which is a miniscule edge, and most of the other props were square in the middle using his numbers. I know yours are different since you come up with a significantly different series % line, so maybe you'll have some luck.
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#16
10-23-2007, 08:33 PM
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Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
crockpot,
I'm interested in knowing the ideal hedge amount for the bet. I have zero handicapping skills and really am just trying to find a good risk/reward balance. I already have some initial bets in, but I can tweak it if needed (even though some of these odds have moved).
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#17
10-23-2007, 08:36 PM
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Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
What's are the odds of a team sweeping? Bodog has the following prop:
Colorado Rockies vs Boston Red Sox - Will either team sweep the series Yes +300 No -600 Doesn't seem to be any value on either side, but I'd be interested in knowing the mathematical % chance of sweeping for either team.
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#18
10-23-2007, 08:53 PM
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Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
[ QUOTE ]
What's are the odds of a team sweeping? Bodog has the following prop: Colorado Rockies vs Boston Red Sox - Will either team sweep the series Yes +300 No -600 Doesn't seem to be any value on either side, but I'd be interested in knowing the mathematical % chance of sweeping for either team. [/ QUOTE ] Yao's numbers give BOS in 4 an 11.2% likelihood and COL in 4 a 2.9% likelihood. A sweep thus occurs 14.1% of the time (fair at +608) using his guesstimated lines. The "No" has a 0.22% edge if Yao's lines are perfect.
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#20
10-24-2007, 12:30 AM
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Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
assuming you risked 2300 to win 1000 on the red sox, risk about 325 on rockies game 1 at +195.
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