200-400 Hand.

[Justin A]

Wtf is a sommelier?

[HOWMANY]

[ QUOTE ]
Wtf is a sommelier?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a restaurant employee who orders and maintains the wines sold in the restaurant and usually has extensive knowledge about wine and food pairings. It sounded a lot cooler before I looked it up in the dictionary.

[disjunction]

[ QUOTE ]
"I was wondering why the Gap theory is not put in play here?"

because this is not a tournament or a small stakes game where the gap theory is relevant.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmmmm. It's been a day and no one has objected to this??? I didn't know at high stakes that they don't have showdowns.

[raptor517]

seems like a pretty standard call.. u are putting in 1/2 a big bet to peel a turn card. there is a diamond. i guess its closeish, but i call. holla

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Wtf is a sommelier?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a restaurant employee who orders and maintains the wines sold in the restaurant and usually has extensive knowledge about wine and food pairings. It sounded a lot cooler before I looked it up in the dictionary.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, that sounds pretty cool.

[LarsVegas]

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 39.6858 % 36.14% 03.54% { KJs }
Hand 2: 60.3142 % 56.77% 03.54% { 66+, A8s+, K9s+, ATo+, KJo+ }

Is this an unrealistic range to put a hi-jack opener on? I am not saying I disagree with you Schneids, I just want to hear more on you thoughts. Is K-Js clear? Would it affect your long-term expectancy by much folding hand such as that and A-9s, 6-6 here?

Is it viable to go much lower here than K-Js than anything other than true LAGs that play average or worse postflop?


Best wishes

Lars

[yellowbastard]

Make a flush (9/47)*(8/46) ~ 3.3%
Improve to OESD and make the nuts (4/47)*(8/46) ~ 1.5%
Improve to GSSD and make the nuts (8/47)*(4/46) ~ 1.5%

3.3% + 1.5% + 1.5% ~ 6.3%

You have to be good $200/$3300 ~ 6.1%

Call

[Scary_Tiger]

[ QUOTE ]
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 39.6858 % 36.14% 03.54% { KJs }
Hand 2: 60.3142 % 56.77% 03.54% { 66+, A8s+, K9s+, ATo+, KJo+ }

Is this an unrealistic range to put a hi-jack opener on? I am not saying I disagree with you Schneids, I just want to hear more on you thoughts. Is K-Js clear? Would it affect your long-term expectancy by much folding hand such as that and A-9s, 6-6 here?

Is it viable to go much lower here than K-Js than anything other than true LAGs that play average or worse postflop?


Best wishes

Lars

[/ QUOTE ]

Lars, your hijack opening range is way way too tight.

Think 22+ T9s+ JT+ A2+ K7+. And to redo your stoving...

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 49.5910 % 47.71% 01.88% { 22+, A2s+, K7s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A2o+, K7o+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 50.4090 % 48.53% 01.88% { KJs }

[have it all]

How would your thought process change if the first guy lead but being live you somehow knew the button would just call?

I've learnt quite alot in this thread, so thanks for sharing your thoughts.

[binions]

[ QUOTE ]
Your backdoor flush and straight draws are probably worth a bit more than 2 outs here, which getting 15-1 nearly makes a call right. Your K and J provide you with certainly more than 0 outs, but with the reverse implied odds of hitting a K or J, it's not clear to me how much these outs should be valued, if at all.

However, if you runner-runner your straight or flush, you're likely to win a 25-30 sb pot, so the implied odds you're getting from these hands probably somewhat cancels out the reverse implied odds you're laying if you hit your K or J.

So I think call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is he getting 15:1 on a 2 outer? It's not like he has a pocket pair of 8s, can hit a set on the turn, and have 2 betting rounds of implied odds to work with. (I think calling here closing the action with 88 is an good call getting 15:1 on a 22:1 shot because of the implied odds over the double betting rounds. Hell, 88 might be ahead.)

Most of the time, he will have to pay more on the turn to hit a winning hand on the river. So, he has 1 less betting round to extract extra bets when he hits.

Further, he may not have backdoor draws totalling 2 outs, as some of his backdoor outs (e.g., Ace) may be in the other player's hands.

If all he turns is a gutshot, he won't have implied odds to see the river unless the turn is precisely checked or 1-bet. If the turn is raised, it will be disaster. For example, if an A hits the turn, there is no guarantee that the original preflop raiser won't bet out, squeezing Sklansky in the middle.

Finally, if the board pairs with a diamond on the turn, that could spell trouble.

It is true that if he hits a T or a non-pairing diamond, he is in good shape for a +EV draw. But the draw is not hugely +EV. If he calls a small bet on the turn in order to have a +EV draw, that small bet has to be taken into account. So, when he has an 8 or 9 outer on the turn, his true odds given 1 bet from each player on the turn are 19:3 or 6.3:1 on a 5:1 or 4:1 shot. Profitable? Yes. Profitable enough to make up for all the times he fails to pick up a draw on the turn for his small bet call on the flop????

If he picks up a draw, the turn is checked and he gets a free card, the flop call is hugely profitable. If the turn is 2-bet and he picks up a draw, he is barely getting proper odds if you consider the cost of the flop call. If the turn is 3- or 4- bet, he loses money on his draw.

Given the texture of the board, the fact that some of his backdoor outs may be gone or may put him in a bind, and that hitting a K or J is marginally +EV at best, I can't see how you lose any significant money over the long run by folding (based on card value alone).

If you make the call for image purposes ("Hey, I am gambler") or to tilt someone when you hit runner runner, that's a different story entirely.