KK vs. DJ Sensei: Live $5/$10

[Parlay Slow]

So after Big Jim calls off 1/4 of his stack pre flop you are cbetting some flops as a pure bluff? What percentage of flops? How does that percentage compare to the percent of time your small pocket pair or unpaired hand is able to outflop KK?

Also note the number of posters (an perhaps you as well) who think that it is "horrible" if Big Jim bets this flop when checked to (thus giving you 4 cards to run down KK)

Still think 5 betting is "horrible advice"?

[DJ Sensei]

I'll probably bet out 25-30% of flops that I didn't hit, and all of the ones I did. I'm not c/c or c/r-ing the flop with anything, probably, because c/c or c/r is too obvious/strong, and if he's strong enough to call preflop, a flop bet will likely not chase him off. The flops i'd bet out if I missed are ones with aces/kings on board, on the off chance that they'll get him to fold KK/QQ.

So, I think that if I check to him he SHOULD bet, but thats knowing that i'll rarely check the flop there if I hit it.

I'm not saying 5-betting is horrible, but i'm saying its the easy way out, and the easy way out isnt necessarily the best way out.

[Parlay Slow]

Why are you betting out 30% of the flops that you didn't hit? You said yourself that you are pretty sure where he's at.

[DJ Sensei]

Well he knows I know where he's at. And he presumably knows that i'm not gonna fire light at him if I know where he's at. So sometimes he'll lay down the best hand. Also, my flop bet won't be more than 5/8 pot or something, so its a fairly cheap bluff.

And this is all considering that i'm not really gonna show up with a weak hand that often here, despite rumors to the contrary. 4-betting light isnt something that I do much, especially in live games (although it might be most effective there, because nobody does it)

[SA125]

[ QUOTE ]
To those who say jim should 5-bet, I think thats pretty poor advice. All that does is let me play perfectly. However, if he were to do that, I fold AK or QQ or worse right away, and probably call down with AA and KK. If he just calls my 4-bet, I'll likely put chips in with any hand that I have, because once i've 4-balled it I want to win that pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Gald you came back to this DJ because, for live players like myself, this is a great thread and a tough situation you see more often than you'd think.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure what you say there is very bad from Jim's point of view. As you say, Jim's 5 bet allows you to play perfectly by folding anything other than AA-KK.

When he just calls the $400 pf, you will make a c-bet almost every time trying to win the pot, but not go any further unless you're good.

Let's say it's less than a psb like $600. Jim should push AI on almost every good flop for him and most likely only get called when he's beat.

So by not 5 betting pf, on the flop Jim has basically bet his 200 BB stack against around 100 BB's of yours. You most likely ony risk the same 200 BB's when ahead.

If that's the case, and it looks like it is, how in the world would 5 betting pf be a bad move and bad advice?

[DJ Sensei]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
To those who say jim should 5-bet, I think thats pretty poor advice. All that does is let me play perfectly. However, if he were to do that, I fold AK or QQ or worse right away, and probably call down with AA and KK. If he just calls my 4-bet, I'll likely put chips in with any hand that I have, because once i've 4-balled it I want to win that pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Gald you came back to this DJ because, for live players like myself, this is a great thread and a tough situation you see more often than you'd think.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure what you say there is very bad from Jim's point of view. As you say, Jim's 5 bet allows you to play perfectly by folding anything other than AA-KK.

When he just calls the $400 pf, you will make a c-bet almost every time trying to win the pot, but not go any further unless you're good.

Let's say it's less than a psb like $600. Jim should push AI on almost every good flop for him and most likely only get called when he's beat.

So by not 5 betting pf, on the flop Jim has basically bet his 200 BB stack against around 100 BB's of yours. You most likely ony risk the same 200 BB's when ahead.

If that's the case, and it looks like it is, how in the world would 5 betting pf be a bad move and bad advice?

[/ QUOTE ]

My last few posts address these concerns, but basically, I concede that 5-betting isn't bad, but I think calling is better because sometimes I will c-bet a worse hand, but i'll never put more in with a worse hand against a 5-bet.

Somebody could probably throw some numbers up about how often i'll outflop him with Ax or other nonsense if he just calls, but i'm lazy. Also, I have no way to estimate my range accurately in this situation, because i could really make the play with anything (but i'll rarely do it without AA/KK/AK)

[ddubois]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll probably bet out 25-30% of flops that I didn't hit, and all of the ones I did.

[/ QUOTE ]
When you say 'hit', do you mean only hands that beat QQ+? Or do you mean you'll cont bet some one pair hands that can't beat QQ+? I cannot fathom you'll cont bet T9s on a T74 flop.

If we look at the post-flop action, we see:
[ QUOTE ]
I really didn't feel like I could ever get any more value out of a worse hand, and that giving free cards to hands that have no intension of putting any more in the pot (although he probably has only 2 or 3 outs) didn't seem great

[/ QUOTE ]
It seems like the same dilemma that faced BigJim preflop, still faced him postflop. His hand range is too well-defined. He can never bet for value. No worse hand will call a raise, but the alternative of just playing passively achieves nothing except inviting disaster (letting XX hit an X, Ax hit an A, T9s hit a T, etc). And now, postflop, he's losing to JJ (and 99/J9s?), instead of just AA, because the worse hands got to see a flop they shouldn't have.

Seems like the only scenarios where smooth calling works out to make more money for BigJim are ones where he flops a set.

[TheWorstPlayer]

DJ, there are a few reasons why I think re-raising is often best for him in this spot.

1. He will almost never want to fold postflop. Even if he just calls your raise preflop, the pot is huge in relation to stacks, it will almost never be correct to fold against an aggressive opponent.

2. By not reraising he will encourage future shenanigans. If you can really make this play without AA (and I believe you can, now that I told you to do so [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]) then how will he ever put a stop to it? If you pick it up the VAST majority of the time preflop, and then even some of the time postflop, AND you get to outflop him occasionally, it is just way too advantageous. He must combat it by taking away your chance to see the flop, and also by potentially re-stealing in these spots.

3. Unless you have AA here some huge % of the time, he's ahead of your range preflop - so it's +EV to get it in even if you are never folding. And you have enough equity with your random hands that it will be better for him to make you fold them preflop, even if you play perfectly, than to call and have to guess whether or not you outflopped him.

4. I'm too tired to come up with others - but usually I would just push in his spot. Even if he got brutally cold-decked and got dealt KK in late position while an aggressive player in the blinds got dealt AA, with only 200bb, he STILL has 20% equity. Not good, but not the end of the world either...

[DJ Sensei]

When you say 'hit', do you mean only hands that beat QQ+?

Obviously, i'm not gonna value bet his hand for him.

Seems like the only scenarios where smooth calling works out to make more money for BigJim are ones where he flops a set.

And the only one where 5-betting makes more is... none of them.


The thing about this situation is, his correct action depends on my range. If my range is tighter, he shouldn't 5-bet, because then he just gets owned by my AA and chops my KK. Of course, that happens postflop most of the time anyhow. If my range is looser, he should 5bet more, but then he still gets owned by my aces and chops with kings.


The fundamental point of importance of this entire hand is: When people know you're capable of pulling big moves with air, you don't have to! The mere possibility of me having air here leads to 200x bb of valuetown, where against nitty mcnit jim gets away preflop (probably) or on the flop (more probably).

[TheWorstPlayer]

Even when you're a nit you stack KK with AA here. You just have to cold-call it preflop, in which case he probably 4-bets for you. And then the pot is so big, he never gets away postflop anyways. This hand is a cooler. Stop pretending it isn't.