200-400 PLO 255k pot

[DCJ311]

My take on the hand as a casual 25/50 PLO player:

1) Arbiannight makes an egregious error making it $66,000 with only $3400 invested. Once TILT_BOB puts in that first committal raise it's got to be obvious that he most likely has the bigger AAxx hand, and even if he doesn't, the fact is that there are likely to be three other competitors and he's got about zero fold equity. Hands like AAT7 with 3 hearts play terribly multi-way in PLO (Generally he stands to have 15-20% equity in this pot 4 ways), because Aces are generally going to be dead.

2) Luigi's call of 13k tends to be pretty suspect, as he's more likely to make post-flop mistakes. His hand is generally pretty good, but again plays pretty badly against the range of hands that 3 guys allin in front of him are likely to have, due to the domination of high cards as well as suits.

His allin call is perfectly acceptable as he's getting 4 to 1 on his money and only needs to have an equity of 20% to continue, which he certainly is likely to.

3) Brad Booth once again continues to live on Cloud 9, as he takes another piece of trash home to a big payday. The 8743 plays a ton worse here than a 6543 would because it's so heavily gapped, and nearly as importantly, it's so frequent to see a dominating 8765 type hand floating around here, and he can't be sure either of his flush draws are live.

As it turns out, his play is good in hindsight as his cards are totally live and he didn't run into a 'dominating' hand that could potentially be out there.

Again, mistake #1 was totally egregious, as he had a chance to get out of the pot cheaply. The others are trivial IMO and the hand should have led to a 3 way allin which would have been totally standard.

[yvesaint]

who plays less poker, mdma or bluffthis

[mike_oxbig]

Bluff clearly.

[BluffTHIS!]

DCJ,

If I wanted to gamble then I like 8743ds if I am sure I am against 2 AA hands allin preflop or even 4 way as long as I am sure the 4th guy has another high card hand and I'm not against another similar rundown hand, for the reasons I gave above in reply to Mat.

But a very key factor in such allin preflop gambles is that you often can only have a samll +EV. Well of course that doesn't matter in absolute terms as +EV is +EV and you want to make as many of those gambles as you can assuming your roll can tolerate the variance.

However that assumes you do in fact have a +EV gamble which you aren't assured of. Misreading the play of one opponent who might have a similar rundown hand, or of how tight of requirements the players with AA have for getting allin (I fold crap like AA72r utg in aggressive games with deeper stacks for example).

So you can easily end up with a situation where you either have small +EV at best, and small to large -EV at worst in these type of preflop allin situations. Whereas by playing postflop poker you can routinely find situations to play where you definitely have much larger +EV to bet large sums on.

[AAismyfriend]

[ QUOTE ]


[/ QUOTE ]

wow, this couldn't be more appropriate, lmao

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
My take on the hand as a casual 25/50 PLO player:

[/ QUOTE ]

Good post.

[Mickey Brausch]

[ QUOTE ]
If you agree that HU challenges are a way to determine whose playing advice is correct for a given situation then please just say so.

[/ QUOTE ]There are a lot of tough contentions in this thread, but here's one thing where I challenge anyone to say otherwise --and be totally discredited:

The results of one thousand hands between two poker players do NOT necessarily prove who's the better player.

Warning for those in a hurry to show their gonads: I have run way more than the above-mentioned number in blackjack simulations (20+ million hands each sim) on the exact same concept and have a three feet-high stack of literature as well to back me up. Now you know.

And because I don't wanna bother with follow-up posts, here's the kicker: The way our two players will play those thousand hands IS relevant! And very relevant too, in determining who's probably the best playa.

In case you wonder how the two claims can be reconciled, understand that señor Bluffy is (rightly) (albeit somewhat assholically) trying to engage you in the (time saving) (and uniquely valid) latter endeavor.


Mickey Brausch

[Greeksquared]

Full Tilt Poker Game #1171395767: Table Pantheon (6 max) - $200/$400 - Pot Limit Omaha - 16:41:03 ET - 2006/10/30
Seat 4: CrazyZachary ($29,000)
Seat 5: durrrr ($128,177.50)
durrrr posts the small blind of $200
CrazyZachary posts the big blind of $400
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
durrrr raises to $1,200
CrazyZachary raises to $3,600
durrrr calls $2,400

*** FLOP *** [9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]] pot (7200)
CrazyZachary bets $7,200
durrrr calls $7,200

*** TURN *** [9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] pot (21600)
CrazyZachary bets $18,200, and is all in
durrrr calls $18,200

CrazyZachary shows [K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]
durrrr shows [7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]]

* RIVER * [K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]

CrazyZachary shows a pair of Kings
durrrr shows three of a kind, Fives
durrrr wins the pot ($57,999.50) with three of a kind, Fives
CrazyZachary is sitting out

I really dont see CrazyZachary doing anything but pushing the turn with his stack being less than the pot and it being heads up.

Even if CZ gives up 20 percent of the time on the turn Durrr's flop call EV is

.8*.1*(32600) CZ push plus durr suckout
- .8*.9*7200 CZ push no call
+.2*14400 CZ check, durr push no call

+300


This is about the absolute best Durr can expect, and is giving no chance at a resuck which CZ will have a decent percent of the time. This analysis also assumes CZ always has durrr beat on the flop when he pushes the turn and durrr never makes a turn call with just sevens (which I dont know how safe an assumption this is given Durrr's flop call). It also assumes Durrr is never beaten on the turn. I think his true EV of his flop call is close to -2000.

[Pudge714]

I'm convinced every post in this thread is stupider than the next... except this one.

[Annies_Beaver]

This hand would appear to have good advertising value for all parties involved.