Long post/rant/whine. Maybe instructional. - Page 7

glen · #61 03-31-2006, 01:11 AM

I am stuck 24 bbs tonight - do I have to win them back before I call it a downswing? I guess if someone believes I will someday win back the 24 bbs it can be called a downswing. Same with Josh's 1500 bbs. . .

Josh W · #62 03-31-2006, 01:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I am stuck 24 bbs tonight - do I have to win them back before I call it a downswing? I guess if someone believes I will someday win back the 24 bbs it can be called a downswing. Same with Josh's 1500 bbs. . .

[/ QUOTE ]

dude, didn't you see? I won 30BB. It seems the monkey has jumped off my back and onto yours. I'd suggest moving down to 2-4, that way the 1500 bets will hurt less. A lot less.

Josh

p.s. how the hell are ya?

Justin A · #63 03-31-2006, 02:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
One friend of mine (poster here) whom I respect an insane amount told me "if you lose 300BB, you aren't playing well, period".

[/ QUOTE ]

That guy is a sucker.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Surf,

Even though you said the same thing as NLSoldier by quoting him, you meant completely different things.

psycho7 · #64 03-31-2006, 03:54 AM

josh, i must say this post is quite a brilliant tactic to scare all of the good players away from the 30/60+ online games.

in all seriousness, to someone who thought he had experienced the bad side of variance in these games, your post is both frightening and enlightening. just judging by your posts here and the opinions that other well-respected posters have of your game, i have no doubt you are a very tough player and a big winner overall.

just keep playing your A-game.

SmileyEH · #65 03-31-2006, 03:57 AM

My gut tells me I should believe that you have won the anti lottery but I want to do some math to maybe back it up.

I'll use these numbers to look for an upper bound on the probability of experiencing your downswing.

winrate = 1.5BB/100 (You say you've had 2BB/100 long term so I'll cut it a little)
standard deviation = 20BB/100 (Again I think 16-17/100 would be more accurate but I'll increase a little)
total hands = 50k (this is right? If not I'm not sure how much it will change things).

EV = 1.5BB/100 * 50k hands = 750BB
Variance for 1SD = 20BB * sqrt(500) = 447BB ~ 450BB

Now to find how many SD's we're off from EV.

(1500BB + 750BB)/450BB = 5SD's

So for 50k hands, assuming the outlayed numbers we are looking at a 5 standard deviation event. According to this standard deviation table the probability of a 5SD event is 0.9999994. Since we are only interested in the negative side that means the probabilty is 1/2 that or 0.9999998.

While I'm fairly confident the analysis up til here is correct and useful, I'm not sure this is but oh well.

So the probability of thid downswing is 1 in 5,000,000 therefore in order to play enough 50k hand sets such that the probability of actually experiencing said downswing is (0.9999998)^x = .5 or x*ln(0.9999998) = ln(.5) .... x = 3,465,735 ~ 3,000,000. Therefore every 1.5 * 10^11 hands or 150 billion hands.

I just don't see it. I think we need to go to somewhere between 4 and 5SD's for this to be even remotely reasonable and for that to be the case the actual winrate has to be about 0.5BB/100.

Again, this was mainly for my own curriosity, and I don't know if the math is valid. Maybe someone who understands how poker and statistics work better together would be able to shed some light.

-SmileyEH

Ps. In normal BBV talk: Josh that's the sickest thing I've ever seen and it makes me want to cry because I play limit holdem for rent.

Edit: Just as a sanity check I plugged in some numbers for my own most extreme variance (500BB won in 3.2k hands). Assuming an EV of 4BB/100 and an SD of 17BB/100 gave an SD event of 3.9 or much higher than I would have thought. So this lends some credence that this sort of math doesn't really work that well for poker, but then again maybe not. A 4SD event is 106 times less likely than a 5SD one. Hm, well if a 4ishSD event is possible then one 100 times less likely is definitely possible. This is much closer to plausability than I thought.

TStoneMBD · #66 03-31-2006, 04:32 AM

hey josh, how many hands did you say you lost this 1500BB over? sorry if i missed it. if it was over 50k hands than its just clearly a brutal swing of variance even if you were playing losing poker. if it was over a large sample then im not convinced.

im also interested in figuring out the probability of it. if you tell me how many hands it was ill post it in the probability forum unless someone else does.

still though, i have a really tough time believing you were playing winning poker but alot of good players seem to think so. i really dont know anything about your play other than you seem to think youre the greatest player alive.

in honesty however, im truly sorry for your downswing whether you were playing winning poker or not.

ggbman · #67 03-31-2006, 04:48 AM

Josh, as of March 1st, i was down something like 130k over my last 90k hands, It SUCKED. I had excellent track records at all limits 2-4 through 30-60 LHE over very significant sample size. I have since won almost all of this money back. I believe you could be playing winning poker and hace this downswing. Just stick with it, focus on play your A game as much as possible, and remember where you were years ago and how much better you are now. I look forward to the future brag counterpart of thsi post.

MrBig30 · #68 03-31-2006, 04:49 AM

Josh, I am not trying to be an [censored] here, just feel I have to share some thoughts after reading this post.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm now down 1500 BB....but I'm still playing winning poker.

[/ QUOTE ]
How do you know that? Not saying you are not, but it seems extremely unlikely that you are a big winner anymore.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm playing like I have for 6+ years.

[/ QUOTE ]
Then maybe the games are not the same anymore? People are getting better/playing differently and you have to get better and adapt as well. I think playing the same for 6+ years is a potential problem.

[ QUOTE ]
No pots were won (4 tabling) while writing this post.

[/ QUOTE ]
Another potential big problem. I think if you are unsure that you are presently a big winner 4-tabling is likely a mistake. Writing a long post while 4-tabling is likely a bigger mistake.

I think the way a winner at poker should handle a situation like yours is to do the classic things that I am sure everybody has been telling you for a long time, things like:

1/ cut down on tables
2/ focus on the game, no 2+2/tv/etc while playing
3/ maybe even drop a limit or 2 for a while
4/ have someone look through your play/get coached
etc

But reading your post it seems you are not really doing that as:

[ QUOTE ]
I'm still playing winning poker

[/ QUOTE ]

Just now I am reading "The psychology of poker" and the #1 principle brought up is:

"Your greatest enemy is denial"

I guarantee it happens to us all.

Victor · #69 03-31-2006, 05:04 AM

just say it. its a sham. its a farce. we know.

surfdoc · #70 03-31-2006, 05:31 AM

Hi Josh,

I am certain that everything you have said in this thread is correct. The entire thing is pretty scary and has me thinking that this poker thing may not be the money maker that I thought. Good thing I still have a day job. I understand what you are saying about the beats. Every time I get a big pair I just sit a wait to see how it will get destroyed. Here is the last one. We all know that these are the guys we want in our games, but for the love of god can he just cap the flop with no pair no draw one time and not get there?

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is MP with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises, CO calls, 1 fold, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, CO raises, SB folds, BB calls, Hero 3-bets, CO caps, BB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (10 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, CO bets, BB calls, Hero calls.

River: (13 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, CO checks.

Final Pot: 13 BB

Results in below:
BB has 3d 3h (one pair, threes).
Hero has Jh Jc (one pair, jacks).
CO has 9d Qd (one pair, queens).
Outcome: CO wins 13 BB.