Some General Betting Tips (My Pooh-Bah Post)

[tech]

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Fading the public is key, "the masses are asses" as they say! This method is especially profitable in the NFL, to mean it seems like fading public favs, the wins are almost automatic!

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Yeah, except that Indy, NE, and Philly have been killing the faders the last couple of years.

[newfant]

Thanks for the info. Good stuff.

On a side note, I made my first prop bet yesterday (Matusow to place higher than Ivey) at PinnacleSports. When will they release the money into my account?

[newfant]

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(5) The lines on many prop bets are soft, soft, soft. This is because not nearly as much thought goes into these as into the game lines.

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I saw this first-hand yesterday. The line for "Raymer to place higher than Ivey" on Pinnacle was at +174 yesterday morning. Someone made a post about the bet on the WPT board and a couple of hours later the line had moved to +149. Michael Davis said he caused the line to shift quite a bit with just a $1000 bet.

[whipsaw]

What is a "rogue line"? I've never heard that term used before.

[tech]

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What is a "rogue line"? I've never heard that term used before.

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Some call it a rogue line, some call it an outlaw line. Basically the same thing. Say you've got ten sportsbooks that have a line on Spurs/Pistons. If nine books have it Spurs -3 and the other one has it Spurs -2, then you have one book that is an "outlaw" or "rogue" because it is different than all the others.

[34TheTruth34]

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Some call it a rogue line, some call it an outlaw line. Basically the same thing. Say you've got ten sportsbooks that have a line on Spurs/Pistons. If nine books have it Spurs -3 and the other one has it Spurs -2, then you have one book that is an "outlaw" or "rogue" because it is different than all the others.

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so you're saying that the one point makes all the difference in the world? So if I just bet the outlaw line on every game, I would be a guaranteed winner? Sounds too good to be true.

[I know almost nothing about sports betting, but I want to learn more]

[tech]

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so you're saying that the one point makes all the difference in the world?

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See point #1 of my post. In sports like the NBA where the outcomes follow fairly nice and neat distributions, one point on every game will basically give you enough to beat the vig. It won't make you a huge winner by itself, but it will help tremendously. So basically what you do is use good handicapping to find a game you like. Then bet it on an outlaw line. There are a lot of games that I would like to bet that I end up passing because I can't find a good enough line.

[34TheTruth34]

ok thanks, makes more sense now.

[TheGame1020]

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Yeah, except that Indy, NE, and Philly have been killing the faders the last couple of years.

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Of course you have to pick your spots. I think the public fade works very well in the NFL playoffs. This year I mean wow, it was like free money. Of course though with like any form of handicapping it can't be your only aspect to cap a game.

[Losing all]

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(1) If you can routinely find basketball (college or pro) lines that are 1 point better than consensus lines, it is almost impossible to lose long-term.

(2) Scalping, middling and/or simply betting rogue lines is generally a much surer path to profits than trying to handicap games.

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Good post. Capping is a tough nut to crack. A decent strategy based on the above points is doable though. My system consists of 1+2+bonus/loyalty programs and it seems to be working. It takes time and work though, and it's very swingy.

Do you ever middle MLB totals? Is there a general rule of thumb for profitability? example- You can find o8.5 -110 u9 -130 all day long, not so great. I find lesser gaps daily though. Assuming no bonus or comps, whats the cutoff point?