99, what's next?

martinimagic · #1 03-30-2006, 02:19 PM

UTG+1 is LPA, plays 50% of hands and only raises when he is very strong. MP2 is SLPP almost TPP just limps when coming in, very predicatable post flop. MP3 is solid TAA 18/9/4 over 100 hands.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Seems like a straightforward raise, actually just plain old is.

Flop: (9.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 bets, Hero... 

What do you do here? Is it a raise to knock out the rest of the field? How aboout a smooth call and wait for the turn? I would like to think folding is not right at this point, but I have been way off before.

djhoneybear · #2 03-30-2006, 02:21 PM

Think about your outs. I'd say you need to make a strait as 9h is dirty and 9s is filthy. There isn't really any reason to think third pair is ahead. I think it is an easy fold.

no1spec · #3 03-30-2006, 02:29 PM

With 3 limpers already in I think I would limp preflop.

I probably wouldn't lean towards MP3 being on a draw as you were the preflop agressor and are on his left. He is probably betting the best hand and either hoping you will raise to help protect it or get out of the way. Because of this I would fold.

WhiteWolf · #4 03-30-2006, 02:31 PM

Fold. 2 overcards in the playing zone and a draw heavy board is not the right place to play this. If you're not beat already, there is a strong chance you'll be beat by the river.

Fantam · #5 03-30-2006, 02:42 PM

Its possible that MP3 is betting with a flush or straight draw as opposed to an overpair to your 9's, so I think that it is probably too early to fold.

However, if you are behind to an overpair you only have 2 outs, and if MP3 is on a flush draw, one of your 9's will complete his flush.

I would call the flop bet, see what UTG and MP2 do, and re-evaluate on the turn if the flop is not raised.

SavemeGod · #6 03-30-2006, 02:45 PM

my thoughts: lets imagine that mp3 has one of the trouble hands with 1 spade so he could have AT,QJ, or QT,(any card tens through aces beat us) that can beat you frequently. I'll call (but tend to fold) and if it will be heads up on the turn which gives us safe card i'll call.and i'll call the river.

ninenine_zoe · #7 03-30-2006, 02:47 PM

hero folds...

Fryguy · #8 03-30-2006, 02:51 PM

This is a clear fold. It's not close.

borges · #9 03-30-2006, 09:37 PM

For the sake of argument, lets suppose that you are ahead and will win a showdown on the river x percent of the time. This, using the rule of 4 translates into x/4 outs for you on the flop (I think this would be right way to calculate it). Given that the 9s is dirty.....given the pot size, you need approximately 3 more outs to think about calling here...so x needs to be around 12.....so do you think you are ahead 12% of the time here?

If you do, you should raise and hopefully get a weak T to fold.....maybe if you're really lucky a weak K will fold (though I doubt it).....If you don't think you're ahead 12% of the time, you should fold.

DQuinlan · #10 03-30-2006, 11:19 PM

:grunch:

Running it through the stove, I have you at ~9% chance of winning the hand against 3 opponents (I gave the two tight guys any broadway and any pair, and gave the loose guy any suited).

Fold. You have no equity here.