equity/EV exercise

[eviljeff]

a friend and I were discussing this yesterday. thought it might be helpful.

starting w/a quiz situation in SSHE: you are in a loose game w/5-bet cap. you pick up KQs on the button. 4 limpers to you, you raise, blinds call, 3 limpers call, CO 3bets. 15 small bets, action to you.

(1) estimate quity when:
(a) you re-raise and all except the CO fold. (just accept it for hypothetical purposes.)
(b) you call and no one folds.

(2) assume everyone will be all in after the post-flop action. using your estimates from (1), starting prospectively from the point at which you either call or re-raise, estimate the EV of (a) and the EV of (b)?

I recommend you show your work, but please post in white. I'll post my solution in a few hours.

[MrWookie]

You're asking for hot and cold equity? Well, just to restate what we probably all know, hot and cold equity is far from the whole picture preflop.

[bodnotbod]

I don't have the first idea where to even begin to answer this.

[bumping in the hope that someone else does]

[eviljeff]

I really think it's worthwhile to attempt to work through solving this, so I'm holding off on posting a solution. here are a couple hints in white:

<font color="white">(1) Equity is the percentage of time you expect to win the pot. You should be able to make a rough estimate of your equity HU vs. a limp reraiser. If you have trouble estimating your equity vs. multiple opponents, use PokerStove with a reasonable range of hands. Important things to consider: (a) is your hand likely stronger or weaker than the limp reraiser? (b) is your equity greater than or less than 1/(number limpers)?

(2) The most important term of the EV equation is equity*pot size.</font>

[bodnotbod]

Inside The Poker Mind With Bodnotbod

"Oh, seeing the flop with me, eh? Well I just saw you two throwing chips back and forth over a QQ2Q8 flop and one of you showed down K high and the other one of you showed down A high, so there's no way you're knocking me off my bottom pair here."

[flop, rattle, chink, rattle, flap, chink, rattle, rattle, flip, rattle, chink]

Ah, sh!t well, I guess you did have something this time; I'll get you next time though. Ooh, look 84o - that will play well in one of these multiway pots..."

[jjpike]

This is a subject I didn't quite understand in my first read through SSHE. I really need to get the book back from a friend that I loaned it to and reread.

[deleteduser]

This post really made me realize how little i know about poker...So far I have the equitiy being around 25% with 5 people in the hand with KQo. The equity drops when a limper reraises you figuring he has a premium holding...I also whiped out some claculations 25x7.5=187.5 which i have no idea what that means. Looking forward to the answer! <font color="white"> </font> <font color="white"> </font> <font color="white"> </font>

[Shillx]

Easy reraise if you think everyone folds. KQs is probably favored over what he is LRRing, and you have 10 SB dead to boot.

Also an easy reraise if everyone will call. Your hand probably has what, close to 20% equity 7 ways (just a guess).

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

(a) you re-raise and all except the CO fold. (just accept it for hypothetical purposes.)

Cutoffs actions are very strange here. Im tempted to suggest his cards are suited. beyond that it gets hard.

i think our equity may be about 50%?

(b) you call and no one folds.

ill trust brad and just say we have about 20%... maybe 22% im thinking against bad players?

(2) assume everyone will be all in after the post-flop action. using your estimates from (1), starting prospectively from the point at which you either call or re-raise, estimate the EV of (a) and the EV of (b)?

you arent entirely clear on what you mean by all in? i dont know or understand why it would be helpful?

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

just a tip cause most ppl havent gone with this: i suggest u just post the point you were trying to make.

its pretty obvious that the results are surprising, or you wouldnt have started this thread.... but its kinda confusing for us atm