I hate this guy.

[Grunch]

Pokey,

My opinion is that you made 3 essential mistakes in this hand. They are:

1) You didn't put your opponent on a wide enough range
2) You didn't interpret your opponent's postflop actions correctly
3) You gave your opponent good implied odds to draw to a 12:1 shot

You didn't put your opponent on a wide enough range

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Villain has a 12% PFR and he re-raises an UTG raiser. To my mind, that DRAMATICALLY narrows down his hand range. I put him on AA, KK, QQ, AK, possibly JJ or TT, possibly AQ. Does that sound like a realistic range for a reraise here?


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From my experiece at NL25, this range is too narrow. In particular, the opponent will call with most double-broadway hands, IMO. This includes KQ, which is I think your opponent's most likely holding.

I believe the opponent's calling range is: AT+, KJ+, QJ+, JTs, 22+ 87s+, 72o

The 72o represents a decision by your opponent to bluff no matter what, and the JTs represents a strange fascination many players have with this hand. (I attribute this to many people reading that JTs is the best hand for drawing to straights becasue every straight it makes is the nut straight.)

You didn't interpret your opponent's postflop actions correctly

I've developed over time a lot of theories about betting actions. Two are:

- A flop minbet is usually either a huge hand trying to kick-start action or an extremely marginal hand trying to either steal the pot or find out how strong you are. They are either very comfortable or very uncomfortable.

Now it's interesting to note here that opponents also tend to overvalue certian hands, so they may feel very comfortable with hands that are, in fact, trash. AJ on the flop comes to mind on this particular hand. Keep this very much in mind.

- An opponent will either resume aggression or become aggressive for the first time when they improve. On this hand, you opponent resumed aggression when the J came. (actually, began aggression since his flop minbet was probably a bluff) Therefore, the J probably improved his hand in some way.

Another thing to note. Sometimes you'll have your man on a range, and then he'll make a resumption bet which doesn't fit his range. This hand is a good example. You said, "t's hard to see how that could have helped him much," when the J came.

I believe that if your man makes a move that doesn't fit his range and a bluff seems unlikely, then your range was wrong. Figure out what range the J did help, and re-evaluate. In other words, betting actions always trump hand ranges.

You gave your opponent good implied odds to draw to a 12:1 shot

Let's assume for a moment that your man does, in fact, have KQ. On the flop when you raise, he's getting ~3:1 on a 12:1 turn shot. Forget immediate odds here. What matters is implied odds. Say he calls. How much does he need to make up in order for his call to be correct?

Well, (12-3) * 2 = $18. If he hits his J on the turn and gets $12 more out of you on the turn & river, then his call on the flop was correct.

If you called the river bet then his call was very much correct, since he got more like $25 out of you.

[Jarcon]

Very nice answer, I dont have anything to add here [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[chicagoY]

87 vpip, I'm going to Party!

[srm80]

i like re-raising to around 4 preflop, if he re-raises, push all in.

[BalugaWhale]

the guy has an 87 vpip, I raise to 5 on the flop.

[Mal_Pais]

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87 vpip

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Probably much easier to narrow down the range of hands he WON'T play.