Late in 20$ DS, 99 vs. 2 loose callers

[JC_Saves]

this is the Deep stack 20 tourney. I have pretty close to average to slightly above average stack. The guy to my left seemed to call me every time I raised. I had only shown down premium type hands and had not lost a showdown at my table. I raised the blinds about every other orbit or so, not frequent. The second call would call damn near every raise at the table and then ckd a flop if he missed or smooth call on a draw or reraise if he made a hand of some sort.

I am thinking given the blind size and the stacks that I am going into and my stack size that I should have raised to 2000 preflop to punish the loose callers. One other thing of note is the guy to my left first caller had not gone all in once that I saw and I was at table for over an hour. He was even getting into it with one of the big stacks for going all in all the time. he said, "I guess that's just not my style."

The flop comes with just one over but 2 flush cards. I made a continuation bet of about half the pot. I am thinking that I should have pushed on this flop with just the one over card. He is either trapping with AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, or AQ and just smooth called preflop but I didn't take him as a tricky guy.

When he pushes it took me off guard, because he had not done that and what hands would he push with here? AA, KK, certainly not QQ, or would he to protect from the flush?

What do you think of open pushing this flop? Calling his push?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (9 handed) converter

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

UTG (t41486)
UTG+1 (t49099)
MP1 (t16040)
Hero (t22872)
MP3 (t31546)
CO (t12230)
Button (t14496)
SB (t52219)
BB (t74634)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1200</font>, MP3 calls t1200, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls t1000, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (t3600) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t2400</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to t30321</font>, SB folds, Hero ?
[/b]

[JC_Saves]

no thoughts?

[JohnFR]

You raised with a decent hand got 2 callers, not a great flop, you bet, he overpushes, meh, I think I find a fold here nearly everytime with close to 50BB's behind, I would call if I had 10BB's after my c-bet, but that is the point of deep stack tournies, you can get away from hands that you don't need to go broke on.

[Yo Adrians!]

Easiest fold I've seen all day, I think.

[JC_Saves]

Yes, of course it is an easy fold when he goes all-in, which is what I did do. The real point of posting this hand was to get thoughts on an open push on this flop versus a continuation bet.

I gave a very lengthy read/info on the players in the hand to help in the analysis. After we have raised preflop with the 99s and get called by two loose callers and we have only shown down premium hands why not represent that we don't care that a Q came and push because we have AA, KK, QQ, AQ and put max pressure on him to fold?

Yes deep stacks allow for maneuvering but eventually you have to start building your stack because the blinds will eat you sooner or later.

The point is given this flop how often are we way ahead to where it is advantageous to take a shot right here. If we win this hand we are among chip leaders and can punish the table or play very selectively.

[yaaaflow]

I don't see how an open push would possibly be advantageous on this flop. If MP3 would call that push with AA/KK/QQ/AQ/KQ then your push is only getting a couple better hands to fold (TT JJ, he may not fold these). He's probably also calling with AKh which you're a bit behind to. One upside to this push may be to get him to fold XXhh, a likely hand for him to semi-bluff raise with but not call off all his chips with. What worse hands will call your push? Nothing, probably.

I also don't see how you're among the chipleaders if you win this hand? I mean if you push the flop and get called and win, sure, but winning the pot on the flop will only bring you to 25kish, still 6th/9th at your table.

Edit: If you push the flop:

All fold:
Starting chips: 21672
end chips: 25272
+3600

Opp calls with range of QQ+ AQs, AQo, AKhh, KQs, KQo:

You win 12 percent:
Starting chips: 21672
End chips: 46944
+25272

You lose 88%
Starting chips:22872
End chips: 0
-22872

When called EV: (46944 * 0.12) + (0 * 0.88) = 5633
Net: 5633 - 21672 = -16039

When you push and are not called you end at 25272. When you push and are called you end at an average of 5633. So if you get called less than 20% of the time the push approaches profitability.

OTOH, many of the times you take down the pot with a push you would also take it down with a continuation bet without putting yourself in a terrible situation. In all, you'd probably have to be up against uber-loose preflop players who are complete rocks postflop for this push to be any good.

[JC_Saves]

I am talking about being chip leader if he calls the push, or we call his all-in, bluff/semi-bluff. I would have had over 45k in chips which at that time was near the leader or the leader.

I think you are way more generous on his hands on what he calls with preflop given the read I gave you about him. He called every time I raised. The other caller called EVERY standard raise.

These are all hands that might just smooth call a preflop raise.
TT-55,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,75s+,65s,54s, AQo-A2o,KJo+,QJo. Given the other guy calls all preflop raises you cannot flat call with QQ in this spot you have to reraise it up to isolate me. I think he would probably reraise with AQ as well for the same reason, and he has the stack to do it.

on this flop we are 63/36 favored against those hands. Almost 2 to 1 favorite. 1.75 to 1. After his all in bet there is 23672 in the pot it costs us 19247 to call, 1.34 to 1.

Our odds of winning the hand are greater than the pot odds so it can't be that awful of a play, can it? or do the pot odds have to be greater than your odds to win the hand to make it +EV in the long run. I think there is a great chance if we push on the flop he folds this hand and we increase our stack by almost 25%, which is significant.

If he has QQ, oh, well we lose, but why would he go all in with a set like that? Why wouldn't he want to get more money out of me with a monster hand?

[RichC.]

I fold this and kick myself later. I think you may be WA even on this flop. This guy is frustrated and is trying to buy the pot. Though he may have only TP this looks more like a nut flush draw and he is protecting it.