Seeing monsters?

[deception5]

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Awesome. That about nails it. I just made one minor modification

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Hehe. Yeah I should have included something breaking in the background [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Btw I put my mad excel skills to use and ran some numbers on this which I think are pretty interesting.

If we are always planning to call the 3-bet (which I think we have to) and we think villian has AA 30% (and AK/88 70%) of the time we should always raise the river even if he will never 3-bet a worse hand and always 3-bet the nuts. We'll gain +.1BB on average if this is the situation.

If there is a 40% chance he has AA then he must 3-bet a worse hand 35% of the time for a raise to have an EV of +.01BB.

If there is a 50% chance he has AA then he must 3-bet a worse hand 100% of the time for the raise to be EV neutral.

Obviously we could raise a lot more often if we could fold to a 3-bet but I just don't see that happening.