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#31
03-23-2006, 02:38 PM
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Re: Huge game. 500/100.
Very good posts so far. Let me start off by saying that I don't play cash games anywhere near this level, so I might be off on the mindset held by the players at these blinds, but here is my attempt at figuring this one out: You raise to 3 1/2 x, what hands am I most likely raising to 9x with? JJ - AA + AK. Other possiblilities exist obviously but these are the larger range of the most likely. Since you have JJ, that leaves QQ - AA + AK. With a reasonably-sized bet and a large raise on a pretty drawless board, and a call by him probably eliminates AK. So it seems like his mindset would be: "If this guy has a set, why would he raise so much on a pretty drawless board? My QQ - AA is probably good here, so I'll credit him with K J or A J and just call in case he really does have a set." Same mentality on turn. Now you've made a bet that looks like the King scared you on the river, which was discussed earlier. If he has QQ, i would not think that he would go all-in here, because the king would be way too scary for him as well. That leaves him as AA or KK. So is it AA pushing all-in figuring he is good but wanting to look like a stealing-bully or KK now hoping that you have, in fact, hit your set? These seem to be the most likely candidates. I think you played this very well up until the River, even leaving him and his overpair confused for almost the entire hand. If you make an almost pot-sized bet at the river and get re-raised all-in I think that in all likeli-hood eliminates AA, and you are left knowing he has a rivered set of Kings. One last note: if this were going to be a bizarre bluff hand, it would have to be 9 10, and he would have to be pretty LAG to reraise you like that pre-flop. Him being an unknown definitely does add a level of complexity to this very difficult spot.
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#33
03-23-2006, 03:00 PM
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Re: Huge game. 500/100.
[ QUOTE ]
i hatehatehatehatehatehate your river bet unless you were planning to fold or call w/o much thought. this couldnt be further from the case with your hand however. i mean, the pot is $40kish and you have 88k left. the amount you bet makes you look very scared of the king, and you have enough left where you want to throw up if he pushes. i would bet about 25-30k on the river, and call an AI fast. [/ QUOTE ] If you are going to call an AI fast on the river then I think the OP's bet size on the river is more optimal for 3 reasons: 1) You will get called by worse hands that are in his range and this probably isnt true for 25-30k. 2) You are inducing worse hands to bluff and this wouldn't happen when you bet 25-30k. 3) He will check-raise push KK either way.
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#34
03-23-2006, 03:19 PM
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Re: Huge game. 500/100.
[ QUOTE ]
i hatehatehatehatehatehate your river bet unless you were planning to fold or call w/o much thought. this couldnt be further from the case with your hand however. i mean, the pot is $40kish and you have 88k left. the amount you bet makes you look very scared of the king, and you have enough left where you want to throw up if he pushes. i would bet about 25-30k on the river, and call an AI fast. [/ QUOTE ] Why would you call faster when you are closer to being pot-committed than if you had bet 15,000? Isn't your hand more defined with a 30,000 bet? If I had made up my mind to call ai on the river shouldn't I intentionally make my river bet look scared? Wouldn't a scared bet increase the likelihood villain is pushing with a second best hand? In addition a smaller river bet makes it more likely a second best hand just calls that may have folded. Given little info on villain from the original post... imo... What's key is if 88/33/44 are in villain's preflop reraising range. If they are not and if villain is sane/decent then... if OP was going to fold to an all-in river raise, I think he/she should have checked behind. Edit: I guess 9cao already said the exact same thing
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#35
03-23-2006, 03:21 PM
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Re: Huge game. 500/100.
[ QUOTE ]
i would bet about 25-30k on the river, and call an AI fast. [/ QUOTE ]
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#36
03-23-2006, 03:31 PM
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Re: Huge game. 500/100.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] i would bet about 25-30k on the river, and call an AI fast then run home crying. [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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#37
03-23-2006, 03:40 PM
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Re: Huge game. 500/100.
If SB was good and had overpair, he dumps it on the turn.
If SB was bad and had an overpair, he still dumps it on the turn. If SB is absolutely horrible, his hand range is wide enough that you can't fold a set. I think SB was getting fancy preflop with 88 (not even a bad move because of how deep it is). If he doesnt have 88, he sucks, and his hand range is way bigger than KK.
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#38
03-23-2006, 03:44 PM
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Re: Huge game. 500/100.
very very tough spot barring a read or some past history vs this player I probably fold.
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#39
03-23-2006, 03:54 PM
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Re: Huge game. 500/100.
[ QUOTE ]
he dumps it on the turn. [/ QUOTE ] Hmm. I dont think folding overpair here is "standard" play.. anybody agrees ?
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#40
03-23-2006, 03:56 PM
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Re: Huge game. 500/100.
Let me give you some opinions:
1) The first place you screwed up was on the turn. That turn bet is REALLY weak considering the pot size and the fact that he called a check raise on the flop. 2) River bet is too small as well. Regardless of those problems, this is a really simple call. At no point would I ever consider folding this hand unless I knew the player extremely well and had an excellent read on him. Call. You are going to see 33/44/88 alot here.
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