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#1
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Re: Razz .50/1 - betting 6th and 7th
My instinct is to bet, but in this situation it is very easy to calculate to correct play.
Calculating villains range: Worst case A3J962x: Outs: 444555777(Total 9) Best case 38J962x Outs: A444555(Total 7) As a rough guess we think villain has 8 outs here, there are 37 cards remaining in the deck. This means villain will improve to a hand that beats ours 21.6% of the time, the remaining times we win. If villain raises our 7th street bet when he improves to a 7 or better and we call every time we stand to lose 2 bets 21.6% of the time If villain calls our 7th street bet unimproved every time, we can expect to win 1 bet 78.4%. So our EV if we bet is 1*0.784 - 2*0.216 = 0.352BB This does not include villains bluff raising frequency or our frequency for folding to villains raise. It is more difficult to calculate our EV if we c/c because we need to know bluffing frequencies. Any questions let me know. |
#2
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Re: Razz .50/1 - betting 6th and 7th
Made a mistake: Villain can not make an 8 better then Hero's 58. Probably does not make a lot of difference anyway. The logic behind the post is still correct.
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#3
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Re: Razz .50/1 - betting 6th and 7th
I agree with spoon's analysis but only if he calls every time (I think he will). Check-calling can make more money though if his bluffing frequency is high enough. Specifically you make 1bb every time you check and he bluffs and you lose 1bb every time you check and he bets a hand that beats you. So 21% of the time you lose 1bb, B% of the time you win 1bb. EV = B - .2 so check-calling is a better move if B > 55%. Although I think 50% might be an accurate estimation based on this guys play on 6th street, it's probably never higher than that and often it's lower, so I think bet-call is still better. I'm not going to do the calculation for bet-fold but for some opponents that's the money maker.
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#4
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Re: Razz .50/1 - betting 6th and 7th
I don't think villain will bluff-bet or bluff-raise very often because he has show-down value here. However, if his board something like xxJ36Jx it is more likely he will.
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#5
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Re: Razz .50/1 - betting 6th and 7th
The question is how dumb the villain is. 6th st makes me think he doesn't understand razz very well, unless he just doesn't believe that prax has an 8. Anyway, not everybody knows that you shouldn't bluff hands that have showdown value.
If he never bluff-raises then it's a bet-fold, no? Even if he bluff raises fairly a bit you make more bet-folding. |
#6
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Re: Razz .50/1 - betting 6th and 7th
[ QUOTE ]
If he never bluff-raises then it's a bet-fold, no? Even if he bluff raises fairly a bit you make more bet-folding. [/ QUOTE ] bet/folding seventh here is like setting the appropriate amount of money on fire |
#7
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Re: Razz .50/1 - betting 6th and 7th
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If he never bluff-raises then it's a bet-fold, no? Even if he bluff raises fairly a bit you make more bet-folding. [/ QUOTE ] bet/folding seventh here is like setting the appropriate amount of money on fire [/ QUOTE ] If your opponent will NEVER raise as a bluff on the end then bet/fold is the obvious play. I don't believe such an opponent really exists. The equilibrium point where folding is the same as calling is something like .2/15 which is about 1.3%. I don't treat razz like NLHE where you can give your opponent at least a 10% chance of bluffing but I can easily think that most razz opponents are capable of bluffing 1.3% of the time. |
#8
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Re: Razz .50/1 - betting 6th and 7th
This guy just raised sixth street when he had a Nine against a very obvious Eight. You can't fold to a river raise.
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