$11 NLTRN: Top pair gets all-in on the turn

[daveT]

Those check min raises suck. I never respect them as actual strength and take the rest of the hand slowly.

[MxGucci]

What was the end result of this hand? Set or Straight? Those are what I put this fella on. 6 7 or 3 3. Maybe he 2 paired on the turn or he just has top pair with a better kicker then your Q. This is a very risky shove by you, it almost screams that you rush your games just to finish them. Why not grind him down a little bit? That might be a reason why your losing at the $11s when you shouldn't be.

[Somekid]

While I think I misplayed this hand, I think you're implying that getting all-in with this flop is a mistake.

If I could get all-in on this flop, I wouldn't mind, and I think my best play (which would've been to 3-bet the flop to something like 550), pretty much commits me to getting all in on the turn.

I disagree that this is a very risky shove, but I'd like to hear what other people think. Grinding an opponent down is fine, but there are lots and lots of players here who are willing to get all-in with weak hands both on the flop and on this turn.

Also, I don't really see any point in posting the results, as it might skew people's comments, but you're off on your predictions.

[daveT]

I disagree with trying to put the opponent on a hand. I disagree with grinding opponents down when you have clear edges early, but that is another thread that I will never get to starting. I disagree with the shove here.

I agree with our thinking that a large 3-bet is going to commit you to seeing all of your chips in the middle. You have no information here. You are, for all intents, playing against a totally random hand, except you know he check-min-raised you. How you decide to react to those, especially early in the match, is the main problem here.

[soop]

I think getting all in on the flop is ok. There are plenty of draws and weaker 9's you beat and not a lot of hands that beat you (overpairs tend to raise pf, 93,83 tend to fold). I mean if he is kinda passive you can assume a check min raise is a big hand, but given no reads it seems ok.

Assuming you don't fold, calling > shoving flop > 3betting to 500 IMO.

Let's take 3betting to 500 vs shoving. Most bad players will call a 3bet with something like 67. Then they'll fold the turn to a push if you miss. The problem here is if you raise to 500, opp actually does have odds to call with something like 67 - if you push any turn. Then he can call the pushes when he hits and fold otherwise. On the other hand calling a shove with 67 would be a big plus for you.

Some quick EV calcs against 67:

EV(opp folds flop): +440
EV(opp calls flop push): +892
Ev(opp calls flop | folds turn if he misses): +400


If he doesn't have a draw, raising to 500 might keep a weak pair in. That's kinda questionable though; I get snap called by like A8 here sometimes. (Prolly makes a difference if this is a turbo or not)

Personally, I like calling the best. It's more read dependent b/c he has to semi-bluff a fair amount, but it traps extra money in the pot and people will put you on a draw and call more.

[MxGucci]

LOL

[Somekid]

There's been a lot of good discussion here, but I still don't feel much closer to figuring out the best play here.

I'm really torn between 3-betting the flop something like 550 and just shoving. 3-betting to 550 seems good, although it might mean that I'm outdrawn a few times, and I pretty much have to get all in on the turn if I play the hand that way. Shoving, while I feel like it's +EV here, doesn't seem optimal.

Finally, I think people have made some pretty good arguments for just calling the c/r, but I feel like it puts us in an awkward spot on a lot of turns (and that's why I don't like the way I played it).

EDIT: Also, MxGucci, what are you LOLing at?

[mjws00]

I just don't see any reason to shove this. If villian was just reraising with air or light, he doesn't often lead a turn like this. If he was an over aggro lag monkey he raises you bigger and pots this or shoves. This smells of classic donk extraction we have very little FE based on this action. This is a value move by villian a LOT, I suppose it could be a semi-bluff block, but rarely. More likely overpair, two pair, set etc...

It would be nice to show down, but a pair of 9's with only a queen doesn't inspire me to go broke vs his action. He called a raise, check min-raised you and led decent... I wouldn't mind seeing the river so I probably peel the turn. But I am slowed WAY WAY down, and I feel like I went to far if he pots it or shoves.

Fsck I wish I could find all these people that stack off with something you're ahead of here.

Mike