Understanding the Social Security scam

[Moseley]

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The reason there is a surplus (I havent looked at the number for a while, 3 trillion sounds high) is because taxes + interest > benefit payments + expenses. Its that simple.

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Do you know the details of how the surplus is calculated? Is it the present value of all expected contributions plus the trust fund's current balance less the present value of all expected benefits and expenses? Does it take into account current Americans only or is it an open group projection with future births taken into account.

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The surplus is those contributions made in the past, that were not distributed as ssi benefits, and "loaned" to the general fund, plus the interest those surpluses have earned.

When I was doing research on ssi, berkley college had a website, which is now down, that showed all these calculations, and showed that by 2017 (I believe) ssi taxes would not be greater than than the ssi benefits that would need to be paid out.

Therefore, congress is going to have to start paying back the 3 trillion each year, to make up the difference.

That's a big difference between being able to tap a surplus of 300b to feed the deficit and now (in 2017) come up with 100b (or whatever it may be) to pay back.

Based on berkley's calculation, the 3 trillion surplus will be used up by 2038 I believe.

In any event, congress has no way to pay back the money, without cutting the general budget or raising taxes.

If you ck one of my earlier posts in this thread, you will find the link that verifies the surplus is in excess of 3 trillion.

[mosdef]

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The surplus is those contributions made in the past, that were not distributed as ssi benefits, and "loaned" to the general fund, plus the interest those surpluses have earned.

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This doesn't make sense. "Surplus" is assets greater than those needed to meet obligations. If I owe you $1,000 tomorrow, and I set aside $10 in my bank account today, I don't have $10 of "surplus", I have a $9,990 deficit.

[Copernicus]

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The surplus is those contributions made in the past, that were not distributed as ssi benefits, and "loaned" to the general fund, plus the interest those surpluses have earned.

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This doesn't make sense. "Surplus" is assets greater than those needed to meet obligations. If I owe you $1,000 tomorrow, and I set aside $10 in my bank account today, I don't have $10 of "surplus", I have a $9,990 deficit.

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First, be careful using "SSI", that is not Social Security it is a different program and has never run a surplus.

Re the surplus I think there is just confusion about the accumulated surplus (a prior cash flow calculation which is clearly positive) and an actuarial surplus (deficit) which takes into account future anticipated benefits vs future contributions plus current trust fund balance (which is a surplus under some assumptions and a deficit under others).

[Copernicus]

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The reason there is a surplus (I havent looked at the number for a while, 3 trillion sounds high) is because taxes + interest > benefit payments + expenses. Its that simple.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you know the details of how the surplus is calculated? Is it the present value of all expected contributions plus the trust fund's current balance less the present value of all expected benefits and expenses? Does it take into account current Americans only or is it an open group projection with future births taken into account.

[/ QUOTE ]

The surplus is those contributions made in the past, that were not distributed as ssi benefits, and "loaned" to the general fund, plus the interest those surpluses have earned.

When I was doing research on ssi, berkley college had a website, which is now down, that showed all these calculations, and showed that by 2017 (I believe) ssi taxes would not be greater than than the ssi benefits that would need to be paid out.

Therefore, congress is going to have to start paying back the 3 trillion each year, to make up the difference.

That's a big difference between being able to tap a surplus of 300b to feed the deficit and now (in 2017) come up with 100b (or whatever it may be) to pay back.

Based on berkley's calculation, the 3 trillion surplus will be used up by 2038 I believe.

In any event, congress has no way to pay back the money, without cutting the general budget or raising taxes.

If you ck one of my earlier posts in this thread, you will find the link that verifies the surplus is in excess of 3 trillion.

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You dont need a Berkeley study, the trust fund actuarial studies are online at ssa.gov and the numbers you cited are consistent with the intermediate assumption projection.