***Official November Chat Thread: The Golden Duck***

[grouchie]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm so happy I get to vent here. I am getting so tired of almost running good and just keep getting shut down by 3 outers. I get my money in so good so often, yet keep getting sucked out on. So all-in equity means nothing? Ok, I am losing more than I should with sets. I know lifetime I am close to 70% and I am winning at a 66% clip. 100k hands, 4% is a big deal. I can't think of any way that I can say "Ok I'm doing good in this area." This month has been just complete hell, in all senses. I feel really good about my play simply because I am actually up for the month. Good riddance mother [censored] November.


found 408 headsup allin situations
won: 267 lost: 136 tied: 5
average potsize: 436.50$
average ev: 0.6509
money won: 113515.30$
money expected (based on allin equity): 115915.76$
money difference: -2400.46$
max money diff: 2007-11-01 00:22:59-04 at +88.49$
min money diff: 2007-11-21 02:52:27-05 at -3708.82$

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe you were previously running above expectation with sets/3 of a kind and now you are running normally at 66%?

[TheProdigy]

800k hands of running above expectation with sets this yr means I might be in for a rude awakening.

[Mr_Donktastic]

The CPC is in town.

Day 1 was a $220 mtt. I came in 30/173, 18 places paid [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Made the buy in back in cash games though.

Tomorrow is $330 mtt. Wish me luck.

Its weird having a couple hundred eurodonks invading my little island.

[Mr_Donktastic]

Also I am in love with one of the dealers. I think she is swedish.

[illini43]

hklm, use photobucket instead of imageshack.

[GT30]

[ QUOTE ]
The CPC is in town.

Day 1 was a $220 mtt. I came in 30/173, 18 places paid [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Made the buy in back in cash games though.

Tomorrow is $330 mtt. Wish me luck.

Its weird having a couple hundred eurodonks invading my little island.

[/ QUOTE ]

link to tournament schedule? how long is it in town for?

[Mr_Donktastic]

http://www.caribbeanpokerclassic.com...ls_events.html

EVENT SCHEDULE
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 26th
8pm Welcome Reception
10pm Supersatellite to Main Event $200 + $20 buy-in
Rebuys and add-on

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 27th
2pm No Limit Hold'em $200 + $20 buy-in
6pm Champion of Champions* Invitational
8pm Supersatellite to Main Event $200 + $20 buy-in
Rebuys and add-on

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 28th
2pm No Limit Hold'em $300 + $30 buy-in
8pm Supersatellite to Main Event $200 + $20 buy-in
Rebuys and add-on

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 29th
2pm No Limit Hold'em $400 + $40 buy-in
8pm Supersatellite to Main Event $200 + $20 buy-in
Rebuys and add-on

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 30th
12pm Main Event DAY 1 $6000 + $300 buy-in

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 1st
12pm Main Event DAY 2
8pm No Limit Hold'em $500 + $50 buy-in

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 2nd
2pm Main Event FINAL
2pm No Limit Hold'em $1000 + $100 buy-in
9pm Farewell Pub Crawl

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
800k hands of running above expectation with sets this yr means I might be in for a rude awakening.

[/ QUOTE ]

you are likely never going to run at expectation on all things at the same time, even if running at expectation overall

ie hot on sets, cold on flushes/AA etc

something like simply getting favorable turn cards can really help and it nearly impossible to quantify(note I'm not necessarily even talking about stuff like turning TP, sets, simply getting good bluff cards, or cards that hit your opponent but not as good as you, or draws missing when you want them too, hitting when you want)

none of that is quantifiable

[1p0kerboy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
800k hands of running above expectation with sets this yr means I might be in for a rude awakening.

[/ QUOTE ]

you are likely never going to run at expectation on all things at the same time, even if running at expectation overall

ie hot on sets, cold on flushes/AA etc

something like simply getting favorable turn cards can really help and it nearly impossible to quantify(note I'm not necessarily even talking about stuff like turning TP, sets, simply getting good bluff cards, or cards that hit your opponent but not as good as you, or draws missing when you want them too, hitting when you want)

none of that is quantifiable

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT

I mostly quit running the luck sims because they tell such a small part of the story.

If I want to know whether I've been unlucky or not I look at how much I am up (or down). I pretty much know my expectation.