My Hall of Fame Ballot

[Mondogarage]

No, I do not undervalue walks. However, walks are not the tipping point in putting McGwire in the HOF. Not when he's still only a .263 career hitter whose biggest feat is an alarming number of home runs -- and this is even before considering the potential taint to his home run totals.

I dunno whether you're old enough to actually remember Dave Kingman, but when he retired, his 442 home runs were something like 10th all time.

McGwire was certainly a better batter than Kingman -- I'm not saying the two are *exactly alike*. However, Kingman is the most comparable career stat line to McGwire of those who are out there, and given the controversy, I just don't see him getting in.

Jim Rice compiled his numbers in a far less offensive era than Raines, and still piled up almost 400 HRs, over .350 OBP, and nearly 2500 hits. Raines' career was 7 years longer, and he only had 150 more hits. A ton of walks, sure, but in a 23 year career?

Point being, walks don't get you in the HOF, and walks aren't going to be the deciding factor in voters' minds, when deciding whether a borderline candidate gets in or not. Raines was a very good player for a long long time, but was essentially never one of the handful of truly great players. For a speed guy, he never even had a single 200 hit season, in one of the most offensive eras ever. Rice was, for several years, one of the most dangerous hitters in the game, period.

In fact, Raines' career OPS is 40 points lower than Rice's, and his OBP is only 30 points higher even with twice the walks. Raines was nowhere near the player Rice was, and if Rice hasn't been able to get in thus far, there's no way Raines gets in.

Obviously, McGwire *can* get in, I just don't think he will.

[doubLe a tom]

pete rose imo

[Pudge714]

Mondo,
Assuming steroids are irrelevant (I know they aren't, but just work under that assumption)
McGwire got on base more often and hit for more power than Rice. They played for a similar amount of time. How is Rice better?

Tim Raines' OPS+ was similar to Rice he played for longer and he had much more value running and defensively.

McGwire >>>>>>> Kingman.

[doubLe a tom]

Rice is not better than McGuire, that said, they probably both belong in the hall of fame.

[Mondogarage]

[ QUOTE ]
Mondo,
Assuming steroids are irrelevant (I know they aren't, but just work under that assumption)
McGwire got on base more often and hit for more power than Rice. They played for a similar amount of time. How is Rice better?

[/ QUOTE ]

Rice's raw power numbers came in an era where offensive numbers weren't what they were in McGwire's (and yes, I know Big Mac's first couple of years coincided with the tail end of Rice's career).

For the sake of discussion, let's equate a walk to a single, as in, both are single total bases (though a single probably has a greater liklihood of driving in a run).

Add up walks and hits and Rice has 3100, McGwire has around 2950. Rice had a few more RBIs, and on a lot less HRs, to boot. McGwire struck out 10% more than Rice, in 1/3 less at bats (so even with a higher OBP, he also wasted a much higher % of ABs).

I'm don't know that Rice was better than McGwire (obviously not the case, by OPS). I just don't think a comparison between those two players is what HOF voters will make. Since I'm not a sabrehead, I don't know each one's career VORP+ or what not, and I also think it's impossible to work under the assumption that steroids are irrelevant.

[ QUOTE ]
Tim Raines' OPS+ was similar to Rice he played for longer and he had much more value running and defensively.

[/ QUOTE ]

The HOF isn't the HOL (for longevity). The difference between Raines' and Rice's OPS and OBP was about the same, with one tilted in Rice's favor, and the other in Raines'. Rice had four 200 hit seasons, Raines none.


[ QUOTE ]
McGwire >>>>>>> Kingman.

[/ QUOTE ]

No doubt, and that's why McGwire at least gets a reasonable number of votes. But being >>>>>>> Kingman does not = getting into the HOF.

[gehrig]

[ QUOTE ]

Add up walks and hits and Rice has 3100, McGwire has around 2950.

[/ QUOTE ]

outs:

rice - 6,221
mcgwire - 4,797

[Triumph36]

mondo,

you are arguing two things. one is who you think will get in, and the other is who you think the BBWAA will let in.

somehow i am not surprised that you think these things match up perfectly

[Mondogarage]

[ QUOTE ]
mondo,

you are arguing two things. one is who you think will get in, and the other is who you think the BBWAA will let in.

somehow i am not surprised that you think these things match up perfectly

[/ QUOTE ]

I hardly think they match up perfectly. I think Gossage and Rice are years overdue, and their exclusion thus far is pretty unforgivable. Clearly, I've been wrong about those guys for several years.

Like I said, it wouldn't really shock me if McGwire eventually gets in, but I don't see where, in the last 10 years or so, the guys who were first eligible and weren't really close to getting in, eventually got in. So I think, in this case, McGwire ends up not getting in.

[doubLe a tom]

goose gossage deserves to be in the HOF simply due to his awesome mustache and cool name

[lobster]

im surprised that no one here has picked shawon dunston