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#21
11-24-2007, 02:54 PM
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Re: BvB trying not to be nitty
Any higher 7, any 9, 88, possibly TT. I'm unsure of exactly what he'll fold, but if you can't see him folding a better hand here there's something very wrong with how you view the game.
Not to mention there are alot of hands with 2 overs and a diamond draw or something along that line, to which a raise here is beautiful 
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#22
11-24-2007, 02:59 PM
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Re: BvB trying not to be nitty
You do realize he's getting 2:1 on a call right?
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#23
11-24-2007, 03:02 PM
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Re: BvB trying not to be nitty
[ QUOTE ]
You do realize he's getting 2:1 on a call right? [/ QUOTE ] So [censored] what!!?? He's got 45% equity against overpairs. That makes this an autoshove even if the only thing in his range are overpairs and there's only a small chance he'll fold them. Throw in draws and the shove could not get any more standard.
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#26
11-24-2007, 03:05 PM
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Re: BvB trying not to be nitty
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] You do realize he's getting 2:1 on a call right? [/ QUOTE ] So [censored] what!!?? He's got 45% equity against overpairs. That makes this an autoshove even if the only thing in his range are overpairs and there's only a small chance he'll fold them. Throw in draws and the shove could not get any more standard. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not really arguing the push being +EV. When I first posted I didnt see that we had all sorts of redraws. So settle down there, Chachi.
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#29
11-24-2007, 03:09 PM
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Re: BvB trying not to be nitty
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] You do realize he's getting 2:1 on a call right? [/ QUOTE ] What's your point? If you are villain, what's your calling range? [/ QUOTE ] My point is that because hero's push is so small, villan's calling range opens waaaaay up. Including those hands that are better than ours. Your second question is totally irrelevant. Let me just say again that I agree with the push. My earlier post was wrong. But I don't agree that we have a lot of FE.
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#30
11-24-2007, 03:56 PM
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Re: BvB trying not to be nitty
[ QUOTE ]
Let me just say again that I agree with the push. My earlier post was wrong. But I don't agree that we have a lot of FE. [/ QUOTE ] we don't need that much b/c hero's draw is strong. let's say he calls w/sets and overpairs. against this range we have ~40% equity (this is an estimation, i didn't stove it so please check). i'm rounding numbers b/c i'm lazy: win ~45 when he folds win ~110 when he calls and we win lose ~90 when he calls and we lose x*45 + (1-x)(110*0.4 - 90*.6) = 0 x*45 + (1-x)(-10) = 0 45x + 10x - 10 = 0 55x = 10 x= .18 so he needs to fold ~20% of the time. the sets/overpairs account for 40 hand combos, so if he's folding 10 hands that he double barrels w/ we're good. i assume you're saying that we are ahead of all of the hands he's folding to the shove which is partially true. however given the flop texture hero's line looks strong unless he's been floating and we don't need that much fe. also we can reasonably expect him to fold tt/jj here, but call w/an A or K high flush draw. edit: not that i think he always calls w/high fd's, just saying that it's not strictly a scenario where better hands never fold, worse hands never call
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