[150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb's Deep

[MichaelBolton777]

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Wow thanks so much for all of the discussion on this hand. I had to take a break afterwards and it's good to have all this to read when I get back [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

To clarify a few things... I didn't raise the flop because essentially I wanted to extract more value from the hand. If I raise here he's probably folding out alot of hands that might pick up a draw // improve on the turn.

I'm in position, and the flop texture is pretty much as safe as can be for a set, I couldn't think of any turn card making my set lose much equity.

I raised the turn for a couple of reasons -- I don't think he double barrels that turn unless it had improved his hand, and if he had picked up a flush draw I wanted to make him pay for it. I don't think the turn raise is bad at all, and I think I'm losing out on value by not raising there.

I remember while playing the hand that I'd ruled out KK because I just really couldn't see someone hitting a flop that dry that hard and leading out, for the same reasons that I didn't raise him on the flop.

--

As far as the turn 3-bet and river decisions go, I agree with the people that have said his willingness to commit 500bb's in this hand is a key factor. He never has AK.

I also agree with the people who have stated that my decision should have been made on the turn.

The turn 3-bet I can definitely see being done with 44 but I don't know if he shoves the river, as he'd probably be scared of an overset when I call his 3-bet on this board.

I think it's very very close, but against this player with these stacks that I should be folding to the turn 3-bet. Again I believe he is never doing that with AK, so he could only have 44/KK/AA at that point.

As played, even with the odds I'm getting, there is so much strength and so many BB's being put in by the villain that I think a river fold is still viable, but sooo borderline.


Benzooor calls $500.45, and is all in
Uncalled bet of $222.25 returned to Danibusman
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Danibusman shows [Kc Kd] three of a kind, Kings
Benzooor shows [8d 8h] three of a kind, Eights
Danibusman wins the pot ($1,658.40) with three of a kind, Kings
Benzooor is sitting out


Definitely the sickest spot I've been in and the sickest hand I've played. I was very surprised to see KK, though.

The day that I can correctly fold to the turn 3-bet here or the river shove while actually playing the hand has not come yet; I only reached that conclusion after alot of hard thinking and it's sickening to think that someone could have good enough hand analysis skills to fold there.

Sick life [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Again, thanks for all of the analysis and comments.

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hey, nice analysis. Dam, i cant believe how much discussion this generated so quickly! i heart ssnl. yeah, i still think after reading everything, that it's a good fold on the turn. Given the turn call, i think you're right that it's extremely close. We now have to win around 30%- still, if we either remove or drastically diminish AK from his range, it may be a fold. Not sure if anyone has done za math w/o AK, but i think it's likely below the 30% -33% we need to win.