******** November Omaha Low Content Thread ********

[iggymcfly]

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Yeah, 20bb/100 (10PTBB/100) is sustainable long-term for a good player if the games are soft enough. I've got over 50K hands at 0.50/1 and below and I'm averaging 27.8bb/100.

PTBB is usually the standard on this forum though and while you can easily hit 20 PTBB/100 for 10K hands or so if you're running well, I don't think that can be sustainable.

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From your stats posted here and seeing you win AA53 vs AAJJds, I know you are running shortterm hot in allins. And that could help explain a big winrate shorterm.

I have an academic interest though in knowing how hot (+EV) one could possibly be for allins over the full 50k (or 20, 30k etc) hands. In theory, I think the allin luck should converge to a normal distribution after 100-150 allins (red vs blue lines in Allin luck on PokerEV). And then run pretty close to at EV thereafter.

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The thing here is that while the number of PTBB/100 will eventually reduce due to luck, at the same time, the overall number of buy-ins will slowly increase. So the convergence of lines is very gradual when in absolute terms, they don't even really converge at all.

Here's a long-term graph for you, and apparently, I am quite a luckbox:



So while the PTBB/100 gained are down under 3 and would likely be under 2 if I doubled the number of hands, the absolute number of buy-ins will continue moving further away from expectation the more hands I play. If I put in a million hands, you'd expect it to be off by 100 BI or so.

P.S. I don't buy this "academic interest" stuff at all. You just wanted to see how much better I was running than you so you could feel sorry for yourself. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]