#1
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ICM Concept Check 12/180 turbo FT Steal
Bringing in a hand from $12/180 turbo final table, in order to do some ICM calculations with you:
PokerStars Tournament $11+$1 Holdem No Limit - Level XIX (4000/8000) Seat 2: bata2 (32198 in chips) Seat 4: BB (71931 in chips) Seat 6: BTN (141167 in chips) Seat 8: CO (24704 in chips) All players post the ante 800 bata2: posts small blind 4000 BB: posts big blind 8000 Dealt to bata2: T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] CO: folds BTN: folds bata2: raises 23398 to 31398 and is all-in This is the initial hand in question. Something that intuitively seems to me like an unexploitable SB push. So lets see some ICM calculations. In order to keep the post as simple as needed i will post condensed results. |
#2
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Re: ICM Concept Check 12/180 turbo FT Steal
Lets see how EV changes: 279$ EV before the hand is dealt 265$ EV after folding 301$ EV after push and steal 365$ EV after push and win 158$ EV after push and lose Now lets define some broad calling ranges. The villain in the hand is somewhere between tight and regular. Tight 10%: 30.4% T8o 69.6% 77+, A9s+, ATo+, KQ Regular 25%: 34.8% T8o 65.2% 22+, A2s+, A5o+, KT+, QT+, JT+ Wide 40%: 37.7% T8o 62.3% 22+, A2+, K2s+, K5o+, Q7s+, Q9o+, J8s+, JTo+, T8s+, 97s+ 86s+, 76s, 65s And, lets perform an EV calculation : Tight range: EV =.90*301 + .10(.304*301 + .696*158)= 270.9 + 201 = 291$ Regular range: EV =.75*301 + .25(.348*301 + .652*158)= 225 + 52 = 279$ Wide range: EV =.60*301 + .40(.377*301 + .623*158)= 180.6 + 95.4 = 275$ So the push is: +26$ (9.8% increase) if he calls 10%. +14$ (5.3% increase) if he calls 25%. +10$ (3.8% increase) if he calls 40%. Given possible EV gains from a push, lets see how the BB equity changes: 378$ EV before the hand is dealt 392$ EV after I fold 360$ EV after I push and steal 299$ EV after I push and win 449$ EV after I push and lose Tight range: EV =.90*360 + .10(.304*299 + .696*449)= 324 + .10(90.9+312.5) = 324 + 40.3 = 364.3$ Regular range: EV =.75*360 + .25(.348*299+ .652*449)= 270 + .25(104.1+292.7)= 270 + 99.2 = 369.2$ Wide range: EV =.60*360 + .40(.377*299 + .623*449)= 216 + .40(112.7+279.7) = 149.4 + 156.9 = 306.4$ So BBs equity before the hand is dealt is 378$. It will rise to 392$ if I fold, and fall to 360$ if he folds to my push. So lets see the EV(BB) of possible actions: +14$ if i fold. +4.2$ if he calls 10%. +9.2$ if he calls 25%. -53.6$ if he calls 40%. Lets compare : Fold: EV(me)=-14$ EV(bb)=+14$ Calls 10%: EV(me)=+26$ EV(bb)=+4.2$ Calls 25%: EV(me)=+14$ EV(bb)=+9.2$ Calls 40%: EV(me)=+10$ EV(bb)=-53.6$ Now the only thing we need are success percentages: I will bust: 6.92% if he calls 10%. Success: 93.08% 16.3% if he calls 25%. Success: 83.70% 24.9% if he calls 40%. Success: 75.10% So, given the above information, this push is a Must, or ? |
#3
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Re: ICM Concept Check 12/180 turbo FT Steal
Things like this make me realize how much I suck at poker. I understood practically 0 of your posts. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
Edited to say: It's not that I don't understand your post, it makes sense, and its a good push going off of the numbers. But how did you come to those numbers, and WHERE did the initial numbers come from? |
#4
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Re: ICM Concept Check 12/180 turbo FT Steal
[censored] the ICM.... your M isn't even 3... you should practically be shoving any 2 here... 10 8 off is definitely in the +EV shove range according to HOH. BB might be looking to ride out the 2 short stacks going out to move up the money ladder, so he'll be more inclined to fold a non-monster IMO. don't overthink this one.... easy shove
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#5
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Re: ICM Concept Check 12/180 turbo FT Steal
The initial numbers are ICM calculated equity given our stacks and tournament payouts.
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#6
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Re: ICM Concept Check 12/180 turbo FT Steal
The key to this hand is that you post BB next and then you have zero FE and are basically going to find you have the pot odds to be calling with ATC. T8o is sweet here cause you'll have two live cards a lot when called and when you win ya +$100 EV easily probably more if you can pwn the shorties a bit.
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#7
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Re: ICM Concept Check 12/180 turbo FT Steal
@b-komplex, i dont post BB next. the shortstack does. So he is going to be pot commited next hand, which does or doesn not influence the decision to push?
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#8
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Re: ICM Concept Check 12/180 turbo FT Steal
really easy shove against most anyone.
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