$33 Playing top pair from the blinds on the bubble

[MUD]

$33

PartyPoker, Big Blind is t100 (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

CO (t2230)
Button (t2455)
Hero (t1730)
BB (t1585)

Preflop: Hero is in SB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, Hero calls t50, BB checks

Flop: (t200) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
<font color="red">Hero bets t150</font>, <font color="red">BB bets t1485 (All-in)</font>, Hero ?

villian is known 2+2er. The last 3 blinds I had completed heads up from the small blind and taking down the pot with small bets on flop or turn. There is a good chance villian would raise preflop with an Ace &gt;6 since I had completed 3 straight times. villian is capable of making a move and may think I would lay down a bad ace here.

If you were villian here and put me on leading out just about any 2 I complete with, what would you go all-in with vs. raise to 500.

like the line? and can I call? I know I gotta be about 60%

[jwesty5]

I could see villian going all-in with a flush draw, ace, or 9 with a good kicker.

[MUD]

If I fold my equity is $60. If I call and win my equity is $108. So I need to be 55%.
I would be:
65% with a random flush draw
82% with 9( or 5)
31% with 95
32% with A5
A2-A8 is a wash with many splits that give me $10 extra in equity than I would have with folding
84% on random bluffs like 78 or Q10
20 % A9- AK

% of time he has (my guesses):
20% random flush draw .2*0.65= .130
20% 9 or 5 0.2*0.82= 0.164
20% A2-A8 0.2*0.60= 0.12
10% A9-AK 0.1*0.1= 0.01
10% 95 0.1*0.32= 0.032
20% bluff 0.2*0.82= 0.164

total = 0.65 * $108 = $70

So with those % for villian its a call by $10

Do these percentages seem right given the way that I have acted the previous 3 blinds( he knows I'm 2+2 and play a lot)?

[Scuba Chuck]

Could you be a little more clear on the quality of the 2+2er?

[MUD]

The 2+2er is pretty good, although I don't know his stats.

Ah what the hell since you seem fine outing yourself

<font color="red">It's Scuba Chuck </font>

Maybe now I'll get some more replies [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]