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#1
11-21-2007, 10:53 PM
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Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 11)
FO Playoff Odds Report
Playoff Chances New York - 86% Arizona - 54% Washington - 25% Philadelphia - 18% Detroit - 14% New Orleans - 9% 
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#2
11-22-2007, 08:32 PM
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Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 11)
[ QUOTE ]
FO Playoff Odds Report Playoff Chances New York - 86% Arizona - 54% Washington - 25% Philadelphia - 18% Detroit - 14% New Orleans - 9% [/ QUOTE ] I only looked through their rating system briefly, but it looks like it takes the whole season into account? That might work for baseball, but I bet it is way less predictive in football where injuries and where momentum/streaks are more prevalent.
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#3
11-22-2007, 09:29 PM
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Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 11)
[ QUOTE ]
I only looked through their rating system briefly, but it looks like it takes the whole season into account? That might work for baseball, but I bet it is way less predictive in football where injuries and where momentum/streaks are more prevalent. [/ QUOTE ] Injuries are a real problem for outsiders, because they've never figured out a way to effectively include them in the system. Like any statistic, it should be used as a general guide, not a steadfast rule. But if it says the Eagles are 18% to make the playoffs, then it's apparent that saying 50% is being way too optimistic. And I'm not buying the momentum thing at all. I think momentum is the same type of thing as clutch: something that's often talked about as important but doesn't actually exist.
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#4
11-22-2007, 10:12 PM
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Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 11)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I only looked through their rating system briefly, but it looks like it takes the whole season into account? That might work for baseball, but I bet it is way less predictive in football where injuries and where momentum/streaks are more prevalent. [/ QUOTE ] Injuries are a real problem for outsiders, because they've never figured out a way to effectively include them in the system. Like any statistic, it should be used as a general guide, not a steadfast rule. But if it says the Eagles are 18% to make the playoffs, then it's apparent that saying 50% is being way too optimistic. And I'm not buying the momentum thing at all. I think momentum is the same type of thing as clutch: something that's often talked about as important but doesn't actually exist. [/ QUOTE ] Also, the most predictive version of their statistic does not take into account the whole season. In fact, I think it eventually ignores the first few weeks.
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#5
11-22-2007, 10:42 PM
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Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 11)
[ QUOTE ]
Also, the most predictive version of their statistic does not take into account the whole season. In fact, I think it eventually ignores the first few weeks. [/ QUOTE ] Weighted DVOA, which is what the Playoff Odds Report uses.
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#6
11-23-2007, 08:41 PM
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Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 11)
[ QUOTE ]
FO Playoff Odds Report Playoff Chances New York - 86% Arizona - 54% Washington - 25% Philadelphia - 18% Detroit - 14% New Orleans - 9% [/ QUOTE ] Looks very accurate imo. If Washington wins at Tampa this week I think that they can pull it off though. Either way, pretty crazy, Zona in the playoffs for the first time in god knows who long, or 3 NFC East teams in the playoffs.
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