#1
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NL100: Close river spot with 2nd pair
Villain is 54/16/0.8 over 150 hands.
I run at extremely nitty 12/10 at this table. Am I right that with this kind of villain and with that good odds, this is a call close to always? Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter MP2: $19.20 CO: $77.85 BTN: $99.50 SB: $135.10 BB: $156.05 UTG: $135.45 UTG+1: $131.80 UTG+2: $109.80 Hero (MP1): $191.75 Pre-Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP1) UTG calls $1, 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $5</font>, MP2 calls $5, 3 folds, BB calls $4, UTG folds Flop: ($16.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players) BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $12.50</font>, MP2 folds, BB calls $12.50 Turn: ($41.50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players) BB checks, Hero checks River: ($41.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">BB bets $12</font>, Hero ? |
#2
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Re: NL100: Close river spot with 2nd pair
Vs this kind of villain i usually call this.
The only thing that makes me want to fold is his aggression. 0.8 is pretty low, and the more I think about it, the more likely it is he has a decent hand here... But you only have to win about 1/5 so it takes a decent read to fold vs a 54/16 |
#3
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Re: NL100: Close river spot with 2nd pair
I don't fold this against anyone.
Idk about c-betting into two people, one of whom is an obvious station, on this board. |
#4
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Re: NL100: Close river spot with 2nd pair
[ QUOTE ]
Vs this kind of villain i usually call this. The only thing that makes me want to fold is his aggression. 0.8 is pretty low, and the more I think about it, the more likely it is he has a decent hand here... But you only have to win about 1/5 so it takes a decent read to fold vs a 54/16 [/ QUOTE ] AF is relative to his VPIP% Since he plays lots of weak hands his AF should be really really low anyway. I call but expect to be beat at least 2/3 of the time. Dont hate folding though. |
#5
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Re: NL100: Close river spot with 2nd pair
0.8 is reasonably high aggro for a person who plays 54% of pots. I think someone made a good post on this recently, idk what topic it was, but I remember the gist of it. That aggro stat is a ratio between the number of times you took an aggressive action (bet/raise) and the number of times you took a passive action (call). Given how much he limps preflop, and how comparatively rarely he plays hands from the lead (i.e. c-bets, double barrels, etc) his aggro is actually pretty standard. Also, think about the type of hands a 54%er hits as well. They're usually not monster hands or even monster draws. They're usually medium-strength call down hands.
Btw, in my opinion, this river bet is usually a blocker by an underpair to the King. I'm very unsurprised if Villain flips 66 or a pair of 4s here. |
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