OESD oop in a bloated pot, say what...

[payoff wizard]

I disagree with Kaz, and I think you should fold. Villain is at 14/12/2, has raised preflop, and then raised your ill-advised donk-bet by more than pot. At the micros, you are nearly never ahead here.

note: with villain's PT stats, assuming he adjusts his PF range for position, from UTG you can probably narrow his range to AQs+, AK, or 99+, against which you have 53% equity. However, its unlikely villain makes this play with overcards and your equity against 99+ is only 38%.

[kaz2107]

[ QUOTE ]
I disagree with Kaz, and I think you should fold. Villain is at 14/12/2, has raised preflop, and then raised your ill-advised donk-bet by more than pot. At the micros, you are nearly never ahead here.

note: with villain's PT stats, assuming he adjusts his PF range for position, from UTG you can probably narrow his range to AQs+, AK, or 99+, against which you have 53% equity. However, its unlikely villain makes this play with overcards and your equity against 99+ is only 38%.



[/ QUOTE ]yes obv we r well behind his range but we should have a [censored] ton of FE here. i dont see a nit calling a big 3 bet on this flop against another known nit with 99-QQ here very often thus makin the play good imo. and when he does call we still win the hand 40% of the time so we r in good shape

[Purm]

Why only 99+? My raising stats are worse then villans 12 and I raise every pocket pair UTG, we could be waaay behind vs a set here. I would c/c on the flop and see what the turn brings, but then again, I'm nitty and to weak.

[kolotoure]

Kaz's line is the same as mine

[fozzy71]

[ QUOTE ]
Kaz's line is the same as mine

[/ QUOTE ]

Bet, 3-Bet, call his All In, Fist-Pump.

Kick your dog when he flips 77+ and you miss.

*Ninja Edit - Embrace the Variance. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Lego05]

Guys if you bet and he raises...what do you exect to happen when you 3bet all-in?

IMO he's rarely folding...especially when your original bet is that large. So he's calling mostly. And that means mosly you have 10 outs. So why do want to get all-in with 33% equity so much...or fold out his nohting hands we were beating immediately....?


Check/raise the flop...we get value from his nothing hands that will then fold to your raise...and largely have 33% equity against his good hnds which will call or shove after your check/raise.

[Lego05]

Check/raise the flop please.

[ama0330]

[ QUOTE ]
yes obv we r well behind his range but we should have a [censored] ton of FE here. i dont see a nit calling a big 3 bet on this flop against another known nit with 99-QQ

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with this, I can't see why he would have raised here if he doesnt want to call a shove as this is not a very good board to be bluffing on. If he puts you on an overpair he knows you will call because of the SD on the flop, and thus we should also know that if he has QQ he will be putting us on the SD if we shove. Obv he wont put us directly on the SD but he will be figuring it into our range. I think our FE is pretty low here.

[Nick Royale]

Check/call the flop. Bet/3-betting sucks. A nittish player just made a more than 4x raise deep, this should clearly make us discount at least JJ-88. I don't think we should try to get him fold AA-QQ and a set is obviously in his range as well.

I don't get the idea of betting the flop at all. Just check/call and pick up the c-bet. We have a nice draw and we're ahead often, by betting we're getting him to fold tons of worse hands and when we're behind we're often bloating the pot with a decent draw deep. We're obv never getting him to fold a better hand by betting, unless we're also 3-betting which would be bad because his raising range is strong and probably doesn't include JJ-88/7x type of hands.

[Altreg]

Yes,c/c is better and higher ev ,than 3b or crai
But i think we do want hem 2fold hes "better" hands,wich i think include A/Q and A/K,we dont want hem 2 hit them on the turn
I think ev(c/c) is arroung +1.7 and ev(c/r) still higher