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View Poll Results: Will the PS3 flop? | |||
Complete flop | 12 | 11.76% | |
Less sales than expected | 29 | 28.43% | |
Average sales | 12 | 11.76% | |
Above average sales | 6 | 5.88% | |
PS3 will be an enormous success | 14 | 13.73% | |
I don't care - results. | 29 | 28.43% | |
Voters: 102. You may not vote on this poll |
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#1
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At least I\'m getting the low.
Stack sizes:
UTG: $1.000.80 US: $406.40 SB: $390.00 BB: $400.00 Pre-flop: (4 players) US is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] UTG calls, <font color="#cc0000">US raises to $18</font>, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls. Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($58, 3 players) SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">US bets $40</font>, SB folds, UTG calls. Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($138, 2 players) UTG checks, US checks. River: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($138, 2 players) <font color="#cc0000">UTG bets $200</font>, US?? no reads on main villain, one of my 1st hands at the table. Other guy is taggish i think. Villain's limp/call would suggest he's at least somewhat donkish. I don't think there's anything to discuss really, just want your general opinion. Here are the only reasons for your choice imo. fold: he has a FH/better straight too often call: he has an overplayed 3/other random hand (AA etc). some of the time, but we are still behind his range. shove: same as call, but we are ahead of his range. if you have anything to add to that, please do o/w just vote, thanks [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] |
#2
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Re: At least I\'m getting the low.
[ QUOTE ]
call: he has an overplayed 3/other random hand (AA etc). some of the time, but we are still behind his range. [/ QUOTE ] i dont think we're behind his range for betting but that we are behind his range for calling a shove. |
#3
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Re: At least I\'m getting the low.
im pretty sure his betting range = calling range except for a really small amount of the time where he's bluffing. which is pretty much never imo
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#4
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Re: At least I\'m getting the low.
two things are key here:
1) you say his betting range = calling range. i can agree with this 2) we need to be good 50% to raise while with the initial call we are looking at 1.7:1 or 42% equity to just call. <42% equity: fold 42%-50%: call >50%: shove i think 3x is basically his threshold hand to make this play and i think we'll see the overbet more with the higher end of his range. thus i would probably fold 3x, call with A2, probably shove 67 and obv shove all boats+ |
#5
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Re: At least I\'m getting the low.
If his betting range = his calling range, then we should either fold (when behind) or push (when ahead).
I think we're ahead of his betting range, so if your assumption about betting range=calling range is right, we have to push |
#6
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Re: At least I\'m getting the low.
[ QUOTE ]
If his betting range = his calling range, then we should either fold (when behind) or push (when ahead). I think we're ahead of his betting range, so if your assumption about betting range=calling range is right, we have to push [/ QUOTE ] it's not that simple; see above |
#7
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Re: At least I\'m getting the low.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If his betting range = his calling range, then we should either fold (when behind) or push (when ahead). I think we're ahead of his betting range, so if your assumption about betting range=calling range is right, we have to push [/ QUOTE ] it's not that simple; see above [/ QUOTE ]Good point [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]. I agree on your advice (folding 3x, calling A2, shoving 76 and boats). |
#8
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Re: At least I\'m getting the low.
[ QUOTE ]
two things are key here: 1) you say his betting range = calling range. i can agree with this 2) we need to be good 50% to raise while with the initial call we are looking at 1.7:1 or 42% equity to just call. <42% equity: fold 42%-50%: call >50%: shove i think 3x is basically his threshold hand to make this play and i think we'll see the overbet more with the higher end of his range. thus i would probably fold 3x, call with A2, probably shove 67 and obv shove all boats+ [/ QUOTE ] this is a very good post |
#9
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Re: At least I\'m getting the low.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If his betting range = his calling range, then we should either fold (when behind) or push (when ahead). I think we're ahead of his betting range, so if your assumption about betting range=calling range is right, we have to push [/ QUOTE ] it's not that simple; see above [/ QUOTE ] Actually, I think it's slightly more complicated but don't think it's much more complicated at all unless I'm missing something: Board: 3h 4c 3s 9s 5c Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 59.917% 56.20% 03.72% 68 4.50 { As2d } Hand 1: 40.083% 36.36% 03.72% 44 4.50 { 99, 55-33, A3s-A2s, K3s, Q3s, J3s, T3s, 93s, 83s, 76s, 73s, 63s, 53s, 43s, 32s, A3o-A2o, K3o, Q3o, J3o, T3o, 93o, 83o, 76o, 73o, 63o, 53o, 43o, 32o } In this scenario, I'm giving him any 3 (along with any fh and any straight and we're way ahead and we should shove. Take away just a few of the least likely combos with a three and we're looking at less than 30% equity here in which case we should fold. I'm pretty sure I shove or fold here. |
#10
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Re: At least I\'m getting the low.
76 is pretty much the same hand as A2 here
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