Calculating LSU's Odds to win National Title - Page 8

iggymcfly · #71 11-19-2007, 09:18 PM

You have one quick thing you have wrong on the Big 12 South. The only game that matters is Oklahoma/Oklahoma State. Here all possible outcomes:

OU and Texas win- Both are 6-2, OU wins H2H tiebreak.
OU wins, Texas loses- Oklahoma wins the division outright at 6-2
Texas wins, OU loses- Texas wins outright at 6-2
Texas loses, OU loses- Texas, Oklahoma, and OSU are all tied at 5-3. All are 1-1 against the group and all have 2 losses in the division. The next tiebreaker is record vs. the 4th place team in the division. Texas Tech has this locked up, so OSU and Texas beat out Oklahoma by virtue of their wins over Tech. At this point, Texas has the H2H tiebreak vs. OSU and wins the division.

Post-Oak · #72 11-19-2007, 10:56 PM

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Would LSU really be only -1 vs. GA?

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The game is in Atlanta, GA, so I gave a HFA to Georgia. -1 is my estimate if that game were played right now. If both teams win this week, I would expect the line to be right around there.

What were you thinking the line should be?

Post-Oak · #73 11-19-2007, 11:04 PM

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You have one quick thing you have wrong on the Big 12 South. The only game that matters is Oklahoma/Oklahoma State. Here all possible outcomes:

OU and Texas win- Both are 6-2, OU wins H2H tiebreak.
OU wins, Texas loses- Oklahoma wins the division outright at 6-2
Texas wins, OU loses- Texas wins outright at 6-2
Texas loses, OU loses- Texas, Oklahoma, and OSU are all tied at 5-3. All are 1-1 against the group and all have 2 losses in the division. The next tiebreaker is record vs. the 4th place team in the division. Texas Tech has this locked up, so OSU and Texas beat out Oklahoma by virtue of their wins over Tech. At this point, Texas has the H2H tiebreak vs. OSU and wins the division.

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Yeah, I mentioned the whole tiebreaker scenario is a bit complex, so I gave a simplified version. From what I have read, your scenario is wrong though.

I only read 1 article though, so here it is:

http://www.statesman.com/sports/cont...iebreaker.html

According to this, the Big 12 has said they will not decide who is the 4th place team (between Texas Tech and Texas A&M). It says they would therefore move on to the 4th and then 5th tiebreaker.

The 5th tiebreaker:

5. The highest ranked team in the first Bowl Championship Series Poll following the completion of Big 12 regular-season (intra-) conference play shall be the representative. (This, then, should settle it, but it's up to the human voters and the BCS computers, which will produce new standings when all the dust has settled next Sunday.)

I have assumed that Oklahoma would win this tiebreak.

Edit: meant to say Oklahoma in that last sentence, so I changed it.

insanity31 · #74 11-19-2007, 11:12 PM

Yea that LSU vs GA line is not right. It would be at least -3.

Also, neither Mizzou nor Kansas would be favored vs Oklahoma (with Bradford) on a neutral field.

Post-Oak · #75 11-19-2007, 11:37 PM

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Yea that LSU vs GA line is not right. It would be at least -3.

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I could see LSU -3 (although it would be a weak line). To say it would be AT LEAST -3 is certainly an overstatement. I mean, at the point you are getting to -5 or -6, you are saying that Arkansas is comparable to Georgia. There is no comparison.

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Also, neither Mizzou nor Kansas would be favored vs Oklahoma (with Bradford) on a neutral field.

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Oklahoma is pretty banged up right now. I don't care if Bradford plays though; a 12-0 Kansas will be favored over Oklahoma.

ThankgodforRB · #76 11-19-2007, 11:56 PM

I don't think you can give UGA a full HFA in the SECCG. LSU will have access to tickets and solid support. I'd be surprised if the line wasn't somewhere between 3-4.

Also, I think OU v. KU is ~pick if Bradford is 100%.

Overall though I really think your take on the whole subject is really solid. Nice finds on some of these.

Post-Oak · #77 11-20-2007, 12:01 AM

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I don't think you can give UGA a full HFA in the SECCG. LSU will have access to tickets and solid support. I'd be surprised if the line wasn't somewhere between 3-4.

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Admittedly, I have a hard time working out a HFA in these types of circumstances. I am not sure how much of a HFA to give Georgia here.

In the past, books used to offer lines on possible upcoming games, especially the BCS title game. I wish they still did that. Maybe those bets got no actioned so much that they stopped the practice.

insanity31 · #78 11-20-2007, 12:34 AM

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Yea that LSU vs GA line is not right. It would be at least -3.

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I could see LSU -3 (although it would be a weak line). To say it would be AT LEAST -3 is certainly an overstatement. I mean, at the point you are getting to -5 or -6, you are saying that Arkansas is comparable to Georgia. There is no comparison.

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Also, neither Mizzou nor Kansas would be favored vs Oklahoma (with Bradford) on a neutral field.

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Oklahoma is pretty banged up right now. I don't care if Bradford plays though; a 12-0 Kansas will be favored over Oklahoma.

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Well at least 3 for me means maybe 3.5, not much higher... I agree it wont be 6.

Kansas might open as a small fave over Oklahoma if they played, but I think it would close in Okla's favor.

Overall, very good analysis though.

iggymcfly · #79 11-20-2007, 01:44 AM

Didn't read the whole post before as I got the Texas/Oklahoma part and tried to correct it. (Didn't realize that they wouldn't use their normal tiebreaking system to determine the 4th and 5th place teams.)

However, I think you're vastly underrating the chances that Arizona State passes Ohio State. They're currently tied in the computer rankings which means that if Arizona State picks up their biggest win of the season over LSU, they should be a full rank ahead of the Buckeyes. If that's the case, they only need 1/3 of the voters to move them ahead of Ohio State which will happen virtually all of the time. I think if Arizona State wins out, they're about 90% to pass OSU.

It's less likely that they'll pass West Virginia, but it's certainly doable. The fact that the game gets the sole national spotlight definitely helps their cause. If I were to pick a number where they'd get significant national buzz going, it would probably be somewhere in the neighborhood of a 2 TD or more win on Thanksgiving with the number of points WVU beats UConn by factoring in a little as well.

Post-Oak · #80 11-20-2007, 02:29 AM

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However, I think you're vastly underrating the chances that Arizona State passes Ohio State. They're currently tied in the computer rankings which means that if Arizona State picks up their biggest win of the season over LSU, they should be a full rank ahead of the Buckeyes. If that's the case, they only need 1/3 of the voters to move them ahead of Ohio State which will happen virtually all of the time. I think if Arizona State wins out, they're about 90% to pass OSU.

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You could be right about this, though I certainly wouldn't put the % chance at 90%. Handing USC their 3rd loss is just not gonna make that big a difference in Az State's already impressive rating.

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It's less likely that they'll pass West Virginia, but it's certainly doable. The fact that the game gets the sole national spotlight definitely helps their cause. If I were to pick a number where they'd get significant national buzz going, it would probably be somewhere in the neighborhood of a 2 TD or more win on Thanksgiving with the number of points WVU beats UConn by factoring in a little as well.

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I would put the chance of an 11-1 Az St passing an 11-1 WVU as basically zero. The computers rank USC 12th and Connecticut 15th. There's no way for Arizona St to pick up ground in the computer poll. I can't really see the human voters dropping an 11-1 WVU in the poll either.

Also, the chance of Az State winning out is low (about 30%). They are underdogs against USC. Personally, I don't see how they can be getting 3 pts at home, but that is the line.