Exploitive play question

[SeanC]

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For bluff/bluff catching situations if he plays optimally it doesnt matter at all what you do with your bluff catchers. The only dangerous situation is when he guesses what strategy you are using but then again it gives you chance to outguess him. It follows that you should not worry about following optimal strategy unless your opponent is much better than you and you are afraid that he will guess correctly what you are doing.

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Yeah, I understand that. I'm not too worried about optimal play for my stakes--exploitive play can reap plenty of profits. Using the indifference threshold to determine correct exploitive plays (bluff-catching or bluffing myself) is what I'm interested in. Is the following example realistic/applicable for exploitive play?

OPP pots the river, laying 2-1. I hold a bluff-catching type hand--middle pair or something. I believe OPP's value-betting range that beats me is X, and it contains let's say 40 combinations. As I'm getting 2-1, OPP would need to be bluffing with ~13 combinations (33% of his v-betting range) for me to be indifferent to calling or folding. If, by my estimations, he would bluff less than 13 combinations then I should fold; if I estimate he could be bluffing with more than 13, I should call.

I'm kind of beating this subject to death across my posts, but I think it's an important one and I want to ensure I fully understand it.