According to ICM: it's correct to fold AA on this bubble

[JackStrap]

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I´m sure the odds are better that I win the WSOP Main Event than anyone can prove folding Aces PF is the right play.

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Same situation but everyone have the same stack 3375 except you are the low-stack 3000$ Then Folding Aces is the correct play ... because you cannot finish second or third according to the rules ...

[DannyOcean_]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I´m sure the odds are better that I win the WSOP Main Event than anyone can prove folding Aces PF is the right play.

[/ QUOTE ]


Same situation but everyone have the same stack 3375 except you are the low-stack 3000$ Then Folding Aces is the correct play ... because you cannot finish second or third according to the rules ...

[/ QUOTE ]

yah or if you had 16 chips and all three went in pf. i'd fold aces right thurrrrrrr.

[darom03]

If we give the Hero 9 chips less than the three others, would a fold be justified?

I don't think so, but it has become close than in OP's example.

Maybe I would fold KK in that spot. Most certainly AKs and QQ... I think.

[KCW12]

What reasonable range could you put the other three on that AA is not crushing? For them to risk bubbling themselves, they have to have either big pocket pairs or AK. How is AA not at least 68% against that range, especially considering that they might be sharing outs?

[LeadbellyDan]

Did no-one read the OP? I don't have SnGPT on this computer to check the numbers but in this situation where stacks are even and we're a little shorted it sounds like AA is a fold.

I think the story would be very different if the stacks were uneven.

Oh and we should point out that this situation will probably never happen.

[JackStrap]

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Oh and we should point out that this situation will probably never happen.

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PokerStars Game #13196535423: Tournament #66966948, $15+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (200/400) - 2007/11/12 - 12:53:19 (ET)
Table '66966948 1' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: zbodom (3600 in chips)
Seat 6: HERO (3160 in chips)
Seat 8: LM BountyMan (3930 in chips)
Seat 9: BozaPubb (2810 in chips)
zbodom: posts the ante 25
HERO : posts the ante 25
LM BountyMan: posts the ante 25
BozaPubb: posts the ante 25
zbodom: posts small blind 200
LSP16: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [Ah Ad]
LM BountyMan: raises 3505 to 3905 and is all-in
BozaPubb: calls 2785 and is all-in
zbodom: calls 3375 and is all-in
HERO : ?

noob question : whats the OP?

[DannyOcean_]

Jackstrap, OP is original post or original poster.

I would call in that example, because even if we don't win the hand, we have a very high likelyhood of still taking third because if we bust and Boza bust in the same hand, we will get third. That has to factor into the ICM here, unlike the OP. Also, if Boza's hand wins, we may still win a side pot vs. the other players and be in position to get 2nd place. I call in this hand. I only fold if we are the shortest stack when they all go in.

[djcarter66]

I think the "this will never happen" refer to the "equal stacks" part of the OP.

I can't crunch numbers but I'm sure the numbers are not near the same as OP. You are actually 3rd!!, If shorty wins maybe nobody is even knocked out. Lots of different things going on #1 being why is seat 1 (2nd stack) callng when folding seems really obvious (he is guarenteed to stay 2nd and could be ITM if big stack wins)

[jkpoker]

LSP16: posts big blind 400

[donkeykong2]

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[ QUOTE ]

Oh and we should point out that this situation will probably never happen.

[/ QUOTE ]

PokerStars Game #13196535423: Tournament #66966948, $15+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (200/400) - 2007/11/12 - 12:53:19 (ET)
Table '66966948 1' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: zbodom (3600 in chips)
Seat 6: HERO (3160 in chips)
Seat 8: LM BountyMan (3930 in chips)
Seat 9: BozaPubb (2810 in chips)
zbodom: posts the ante 25
HERO : posts the ante 25
LM BountyMan: posts the ante 25
BozaPubb: posts the ante 25
zbodom: posts small blind 200
LSP16: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [Ah Ad]
LM BountyMan: raises 3505 to 3905 and is all-in
BozaPubb: calls 2785 and is all-in
zbodom: calls 3375 and is all-in
HERO : ?

noob question : whats the OP?

[/ QUOTE ]

this is a call, as pozabob has less chips than hero.
i m pretty sure it s a fold if all have around the same with hero a little less.