#31
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Re: NL25 KK
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I havent played nl25 for a while, but idk, are people regularly committing suicide there now? Why would he shove into an ace high board when he can just check behind? [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] why do you suggest that villain takes a different approach with a middle pair then we do? if villain has JJ/QQ and is decent, he might think as well pushing here will only lead to a call from hands that beat me. [/ QUOTE ] If this was NL50/100 I would agree with you guys but I think your giving NL25 players too much credit, a lot of the time they are bad enough to do this.. Regardless, why does it matter?? If you push your not allowing him any opportunity to push a worse hand. Even if there is a only a 1% chance (much bigger than this imo) he will push worse hands if you check to him, why is this a bad move? Especially if your 'pot-committed' and push any turn card if he checks behind.. [/ QUOTE ] Well, the counter to this argument is that he may call a flop push with JJ or QQ given that he has less than a 1/2 psb behind. But if he checks behind on the flop and a heart peels off on the turn and hero shoves, he may decide that his hand is no good (if he doesn't hold a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) and decide to give up. I think we're just splitting hairs here given the amount of money left behind but I'm still in the check the flop camp. It just doesn't matter enough either way imo. [/ QUOTE ] yeah your right about the counter argument but the -EV your getting from this situation doesn't outweigh the +EV your getting from the times he shoves to your check on the flop with a worse hand (and also when the heart doesnt peel off) |
#32
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Re: NL25 KK
Seems like an easy check and I don't really like the 4 bet size bet w/e.
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#33
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Re: NL25 KK
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I said push and pray. There's two whole cards in the deck that will convince us that we're strong enough to call/bet if we check this flop. You're basically folding a 3/1 pot if you're saying wait and see, because you're just not going to catch up. It's just... not going to happen. If you really don't think there's at least a 25% chance he's got QQ/JJ, you've got the sickest read on villain in the history of 25nl. Both stacks are very short; do you really think he doesn't call anything without an ace? [/ QUOTE ] Firstly, I don't think the point is that we're trying to catch up by checking. The point is because of our pot-odds all our chips are going in regardless of turn (we never fold this hand), doesn't matter if it helps us, him or neither of us.. With your second point, I think the thing is given he has JJ/QQ (or other hands we beat), the amount of times he calls our shove is much less than the amount of times he shoves to our check (+ calls our turn shove), thus a check is more +EV |
#34
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Re: NL25 KK
If you think he does this 70% with Ax, it's still +EV by $.33
HINT: LOOK AT STATS |
#35
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Re: NL25 KK
You win the pot 100% of the time if he folds. You lose the pot, let's say, 70% of the time if he pushes and you call. He's pushing 100% of the time if you check, and you can't make an EV decision based on that read. You might get him to make a mistake there, but you're also giving yourself a significant opportunity to make the same sort of mistake.
Do you REALLY think he's folding a push anyways? Look at his stack! Look at his stats! He's in the exact same position we are. |
#36
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Re: NL25 KK
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You win the pot 100% of the time if he folds. You lose the pot, let's say, 70% of the time if he pushes and you call. Do you REALLY think he's folding a push anyways? Look at his stack! Look at his stats! He's in the exact same position we are. [/ QUOTE ] what you're saying is: it doesn't matter because nobody is folding anyways. and i agree, that should be the case with both players being aware of stack sizes and pot odds. but since we don't know if villain is aware of pot odds, what is the best play if there's a chance of 1% that he isn't aware of stack sizes and pot odds? clearly, check/calling is best then because when he is not aware he does not call a push with KK. |
#37
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Re: NL25 KK
Check and call a shove. He might shove with some hands we beat but its less likely he'll call with those hands.
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#38
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Re: NL25 KK
If he has no idea of pot odds, he also probably doesn't know anything about reads, either. How do you know he puts you on KK if you're playing against the donk of the century? There's too many hypotheticals there. If you go all in and he folds, he made a major league mistake based on pot odds. Bar none. You ARE giving him the opportunity to make a mistake, it's just a different mistake.
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#39
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Re: NL25 KK
For that matter, if you push with an ace high flop, he could put you on AA and fold AJ-AQ. You're assuming the guy is clairvoyant with his reads but completely ignorant of pot odds?
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#40
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Re: NL25 KK
[ QUOTE ]
You win the pot 100% of the time if he folds. You lose the pot, let's say, 70% of the time if he pushes and you call. He's pushing 100% of the time if you check, and you can't make an EV decision based on that read. You might get him to make a mistake there, but you're also giving yourself a significant opportunity to make the same sort of mistake. Do you REALLY think he's folding a push anyways? Look at his stack! Look at his stats! He's in the exact same position we are. [/ QUOTE ] You really think hes pushing 100% of the time we check to him???? Your saying hes pot committed like us but thats assuming he knows hes pot-committed, which at 25NL is v. debateable Point is hes not calling 100% of the time if WE push. I dont really get your argument because you saying he pushes 100% of the time is in favor of a check..if this is true (not imo) and he calls a shove from us less than 100% of the time (which is definitely true) then we should check right?.. (because we beat some of his range) |
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