The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP - Page 5

seke2 · #41 03-20-2006, 05:25 PM

Allright, I'm convinced.

What if we had less prizes. Say, top 4 paid, 5 left, would this become a call if the shortie was UTG and Hero was on the button, lets say 2nd in chips but could afford to lose the hand and still be 3rd in chips.

adanthar · #42 03-20-2006, 05:26 PM

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I think playing AA here would be a massive mistake. I don't see how it's even close.

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Exactly. No, it's not close.

I guess I could see an argument for overlimping and hitting a set but that's just about the only thing I'd even think of.

The Bear · #43 03-20-2006, 05:32 PM

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You have the seat locked up by folding. However, if you call, you probably have about a 60% chance of winning the hand and ending it right there. If you lose, you can still fold your way in.

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Okay, so you have the seat locked up but you still want to play? Are you seriously suggesting that there is something to be gained by hero ending the tourney right there? Every chip counts at this stage, and hero should never risk any of his. Who the [censored] cares if the tourney takes another 15 minutes. Hero is a STONE COLD LOCK unless he's an idiot.

Fold everything. So not close to close.

dcviperboy · #44 03-20-2006, 05:39 PM

How about being the big stack in the small blind, MP calls(still with 99), now CO calls as well (still with JJ), still puch with KK assuming you have the best hand and trying to take out 2 ppl for the price of the larger stack???

fro_dude · #45 03-20-2006, 05:49 PM

Is it just me or does anyone else think this comes down to straight numbers? With your chip position, you have a better chance of winning a seat by folding AA if you KNOW your opponent has AKo. It just straight percentages...filling your equity with a seat here is 94+%, but in the best showdown possible for you (AA vs. AK) you're less than a 90% favorite. Turn the computer off and cruise to a seat, you have no obligation to knock out a short stack, leave that for someone else. Your highest equity, MATHEMATICALLY is acheived by folding EVERY hand.

seke2 · #46 03-20-2006, 05:53 PM

Allright, so when I start playing sats more, the fundamental advice for late game play seems to be...

Someone else will screw up, so the proper strategy when you feel you are likely guaranteed a seat is to just not do anything, regardless of the strength of your hand, the stacks of those involved, pot odds, etc.

In order to get involved in a hand, you need a huge pot odds overlay so big that it makes calling completely trivial or a monster stack against a tiny stack where losing the hand does basically nothing to decrease your chances of winning a prize.

M.B.E. · #47 03-21-2006, 02:16 AM

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Allright, so when I start playing sats more, the fundamental advice for late game play seems to be...

Someone else will screw up, so the proper strategy when you feel you are likely guaranteed a seat is to just not do anything, regardless of the strength of your hand, the stacks of those involved, pot odds, etc.

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It isn't merely that you expect someone else to "screw up". Even if you knew your opponents were all experts who would not make any playing errors, you would fold AA in the situation set out by the OP. Eventually two short stacks will get all in against each other, so that either one of them will bust out, or one will be left with a stack less than the small blind.

M.B.E. · #48 03-21-2006, 02:25 AM

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I think playing AA here would be a massive mistake. I don't see how it's even close.

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Let's not go overboard here. Playing AA would be a clear mistake, but it actually would be "close" in EV terms. By that I mean that the EV differential between playing AA and folding it is only a few dollars, maybe $30 at most, not much at all in relation to the prize pool. That's assuming of course that you aren't under any circumstances going to put in more than 12K chips or so.

SossMan · #49 03-21-2006, 03:02 AM

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I think playing AA here would be a massive mistake. I don't see how it's even close.

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Let's not go overboard here. Playing AA would be a clear mistake, but it actually would be "close" in EV terms. By that I mean that the EV differential between playing AA and folding it is only a few dollars, maybe $30 at most, not much at all in relation to the prize pool. That's assuming of course that you aren't under any circumstances going to put in more than 12K chips or so.

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yeah, and my time is worth $200 an hour so ending it 15 min earlier would be worth $50 so we should call w/ AA here.

-andrew