Prop bet for Full Ring

GiantBuddha · #1 11-15-2007, 02:52 AM

If you're not built for endurance, this is --EV. I am built for endurance, and a 24 hour session was brutal. There's a good chance that even if you win the prop bet, you'll lose money on -EV decisions because your decisions are no longer pure poker decisions, not to mention fatigue.

GiantBuddha · #2 11-15-2007, 02:52 AM

That said, good luck, and it would be a pretty awesome achievement.

holdem2000 · #3 11-15-2007, 02:59 AM

I agree that this seems -EV for OP, but how -EV is it? While I only get up to 5 buyins at 200nl about once a week, my sessions are only about 2 hours and I'm playing to maximize EV rather than stack size. Obviously high variance plays are good for you until your stack reaches a certain size. If the bet is large enough you could take as many tables as you're able to play and keep pushing random hands hoping to only be a 2:1 dog most of the time and eventually getting up to about 4-5 buyins on a bunch of tables pretty trivially (after losing, say, $10K).

Also if you're down to about 30 minutes left and have a $1600 stack on one table you can start pushing tons of crap and if you're only a 2:1 dog for stacks a couple times you can still win the bet 1/9th of the time only giving up about a $100 EV at the table.

Edit: If you're not making ridiculous plays like I mention above you're probably better off at nl400 if you're a significantly winning player at both stakes since the extra aggression at nl400 will lead to higher variance.

Das Budrick · #4 11-15-2007, 03:28 AM

when Renton did his marathon one of the items to bet on was getting a 1000bb stack on one table, but he quickly removed it as one of the things he would accept bets for because it's just so unlikely. he made it more of a personal goal type of thing.

in summary, if i were to place a wager i would bet against you doing this.

toymach776 · #5 11-15-2007, 03:29 AM

Ill bet against you all day here. but gl, lol.

Bellagibro · #6 11-15-2007, 03:32 AM

Thanks for the responses so far. I do think it is very doable but no easy feat by any means. We have not talked odds and I was going to take this one st8 up 1-1.

Don't want to get too into my strategy too much but I was going to play a high variance game initially to build up a stack up to 5x max buy and grind it from there.

I didn't like the fact that I could not play 3 handed but my buddy said it would be too easy for me if I was able to play HU and 3 handed.

Games breaking was why I was thinking of just 10-12 tabling the $200NL games as there are a lot more of them and the $400 games get really thin late night.

I would really concentrate and play 6 or less games once I got a stack of 4x-6x max buy.

Time of day is also a factor. I am thinking of starting around 6-8pm on a Friday or Saturday.

twoblacknines · #7 11-15-2007, 03:48 AM

If I was you I would want to bet for more than $2,000. The more the bet is worth, the more you can gamble to build a big stack.

Bellagibro · #8 11-15-2007, 04:07 AM

I think he would want to be the smallest amount that would get me to torture myself with this bet. We are still talking terms and I am really trying to get him to bet in the 3-5k range but would most likely go for 2k.

LarryLaughs · #9 11-15-2007, 04:12 AM

Your buddy is not worried about getting hustled?
With a big enough bet, you could easily make a deal with some players to get chips dumped to your biggest stack.

I assume you can play many tables?

Bellagibro · #10 11-15-2007, 04:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Your buddy is not worried about getting hustled?
With a big enough bet, you could easily make a deal with some players to get chips dumped to your biggest stack.

I assume you can play many tables?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I guess if I was a scumbag I could do that. He will have access to my PT database and can look over all the hands I played. I think my buddy thinks for the most part that I'm honest as he did take half my action during WSOP in a 25-50NL game and made $6300 in his sleep.